B1G Coaches on the Hotseat

I started paying attention to college football at the age of ten. Why age ten? It was 1970 and the year Nebraska won their first national championship. On Saturdays while listening to the radio you would hear broadcasters bring up names like Paul (Bear) Bryant, Ara Parseghian, Woody Hayes, Darrell Royal, and Bob Devaney. Much has changed since those days. How athletic the players are, the way the game is played, conference networks with every game on television, NIL, and millions of dollars being dumped into programs.

But other things haven’t changed. It’s still a great game with fans who live and breathe for Saturday. And because that hasn’t changed, there is something else that will probably never change. The coaching hotseat. Fan bases can turn quickly, and while being on the hotseat hasn’t changed, how quickly the seat can get hot or cool back off can happen in the blink of an eye. Just ask Ohio State coach Ryan Day.

So, what B1G coaches are on the hotseat this season? Whose seat may not be warm, but a change might be coming? And which coaches don’t need to worry about the future, but the present. We’ll start with the coaches who are most likely not to be in the B1G next season and work our way down to those who are most secure.

1. Luke Fickell – Fickell is starting his third year as Wisconsin’s head coach and has a record of 13-13. Fans aren’t happy in Madison, and there are those that are speculating that if this year’s squad starts out slow, Fickell won’t make it through the season. It’s a make-or-break year for Fickell, and the Badger’s schedule is brutal, with games at Alabama, Michigan, Oregon, Indiana, and Minnesota, along with home games against Iowa, Ohio State, Washington, and Illinois. Odds makers have Wisconsin at 5.5 wins. I’ll go with the under.
2. David Braun – With the Pat Fitzgearld saga in 2023, Braun was pushed straight into the fire. He impressed everyone by leading Northwestern to an 8-5 mark in his first season, which earned him an extended contract as the Wildcats head man. However, Braun and his team fell back to reality last season by going 4-8. With the academic requirements hobbling them in the transfer portal, and not pushing NIL, it’s hard to imagine Northwestern improving. Fitzgerald showed it takes a special coach to have success at Northwestern. Braun won’t be given the time to prove that. The Cats have Tulane, Oregon, Penn State, Nebraska, USC, Michigan, and Illinois on their schedule. Oddsmakers have them at 3.5 wins. Seems spot on to me.
3. Sherrone Moore – Last season was a roller-coaster ride for Michigan fans as they finished 8-5 in Moore’s first season. After disappointing losses to Washington, Illinois and Indiana the Wolverines salvaged the season with wins over Ohio State and Alabama to end the year. However, Moore is on the list because of the hoopla still surrounding the program over the sign stealing scandal. The school announced a two-game self-imposed suspension for Moore in the upcoming season due to his involvement. Many are suggesting Moore will end up being the fall guy before it’s over with. The 2025 schedule isn’t daunting, with games against Oklahoma, Nebraska, USC, and Ohio State. The oddsmakers have the Wolverines at 8.5 wins. If Moore stumbles and it’s something less, look for a change.
4. Mike Locksley – Locksley is starting his seventh season at Maryland as the Terps head man and has a record of 33-41 over that period. His team finished a disappointing 4-8 last season after two consecutive eight-win seasons. Will Maryland be content with being in the lower tier of the conference or are they willing to make the investment needed to climb higher? History says Locksley gets another season regardless of outcome. Oddsmakers have Maryland at 4.5 wins. I won’t argue.
5. Lincoln Riley – USC’s win loss record has been trending in the wrong direction under Riley. In his first season (2022) the Trojans went 11-3. Since then, they have gone 8-5 and 7-6. He’ll need to get back to double digit wins to stay in the good graces of USC fans. If Riley follows this season up with another seven win or less season, there could be a change. With the most difficult games being at Illinois, Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Oregon, Riley should be safe. But they haven’t won the games they were supposed to over the last two seasons. Oddsmakers have the Trojans at 7.5 wins. I’ll take the over.
6. Kirk Ferentz – The Iowa coach is starting his 27th season as the head man of the Hawkeyes. In that time, he established a record of 204-124. However, things soured in Iowa City when after the 2023 season he was forced to fire his son, OC Brian Frentz. Since then, there has been speculation each season will be Frentz’s last. The Iowa schedule isn’t a killer, with home games against Ohio State and Illinois. The Hawks will travel to Iowa State, Michigan, and Nebraska. Oddsmakers have Iowa at 7.5 wins. I couldn’t agree more, but I look for Ferentz to call it quits after the season regardless of the record.
7. PJ Fleck – Minnesota is an improved program under Fleck and fans don’t seem to have gotten tired rowing the boat. After eight seasons, the Gophers have a record of 56-39. But something isn’t right in the Land of Lakes, Fleck seems to be looking to move, with rumors of having applied for the Nebraska job when it was open, and UCLA last season. Does PJ feel like the ceiling is too low in Minnesota? The Oddsmakers have Minnesota at 6.5 wins. Their schedule says that’s doable, with home games against Nebraska, and away games against Ohio State, Oregon, and Iowa. Who will PJ be looking at this offseason?
8. DeShaun Foster – After starting 1-5, UCLA finished the season 4-2, and while 5-7 isn’t great, the finish gave the Bruins momentum going into 2025. However, even with another losing season Foster may be safe, as UCLA isn’t considered a particularly good job. Great location, but no attendance. The Bruins open with Utah and get Penn State and Nebraska at home. They will travel to UNLV, Indiana, Ohio State and USC. Oddsmakers have them at 4.5 wins. Right again, as I don’t see 5 wins on the schedule.
9. Greg Schiano – Rutgers falls into the same category as Maryland, just how hungry are they and are they willing to make the investment required to find a home in the top half of the B1G. Rutgers brought Schiano back for an encore and one could immediately see a shift in culture. In his first stint as head man the Scarlet Knights went 68-67. Since Schiano’s return, they’ve gone 26-34. Not eyepopping numbers but Schiano’s teams have been above .500 in 8 of his 16 seasons. The Knights travel to Illinois and Ohio State, and get Iowa, Oregon and Penn State at home. Oddsmakers have Rutgers at 5.5 wins. That’s a solid number.
10. Curt Cignetti – ‘Google Me’ set the tone when he first arrived at Indiana and hasn’t slowed down since. Is there a coach with more bravados in the B1G? You must admit, he backed it up in his first season, going 11-1 and qualifying for the CFP. But the only problem with putting yourself on the mountain top is not letting anyone knock you off. Soon as that happens, Cignetti’s swagger will become foolhardiness. The schedule will allow Cignetti and the Hoosiers to pound their chests one more season, with the softest non-conference schedule in the B1G. Plus they don’t play Ohio State or Michigan and get Illinois at home. They travel to Oregon and Penn State. The oddsmakers have the Hoosiers at 8.5 wins. It’ll be under as they only get to 8.
11. Jonathon Smith – Michigan State finished 5-7 last season which was disappointing considering Smith went 25-13 his last three seasons at Oregon State. Michigan State is thought to have better resources for Smith to work with, and more was expected. This season the Spartans travel to USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota and Iowa, with home games against UCLA, Michigan and Penn State. Oddsmakers have Sparty at 5.5 wins. I can’t find more than 5. Another losing season won’t bode well for Smith.
12. Jedd Fisch –Fisch took Arizona from 1-11 in his first season to 10-3 in his third. Washington finished 6-7 in Fisch’s first season, and the expectations are that the Huskies will make the same type of gain in year two. Winning games against Michigan, USC, and UCLA at home in 2024, hopes are that Fisch’s team can find that same success against Ohio State, Illinois, and Oregon at home in 2025. The toughest road game will be against Michigan. Oddsmakers put the Huskies at 7.5 wins. Even if Fisch only gets to seven again, there’s too much promise, and Washington will ride with him a third year.
13. Matt Rhule – The best thing that ever happened at Nebraska for Matt Rhule was Scott Frost. After Frost, Husker fans are more than willing to give Rhule time if it shows up incrementally in the win column. That’s not to say 7 wins will be good enough in year three, as Rhule himself has suggested more. Husker fans know the 5-7 and 6-6 seasons Rhule has given them thus far should have been better and this year’s schedule points to that as well. For Rhule to stay on the right side of things the Huskers will need to win against Cincinnati, Michigan, USC, and Iowa at home, and beat Minnesota and UCLA on the road. Fans would love a win against Penn State on the road, but they aren’t greedy, they know Nebraska needs to start winning the games they are supposed to win first. Oddsmakers have Nebraska at 7.5 wins. That’s too low. This should be an 8 to 10 win team.
14. Ryan Day – With Ohio State’s fourth consecutive loss to Michigan at home, Day was feeling the heat, but winning a National Championship has a way of cooling things off. Even so, Day felt the need to shuffle his staff. Gone are OC Chip Kelly and DC Jim Knowles, being replaced by former NFL coach Matt Patrica and wide receiver coach Brian Hartline. It’s a gamble, and unless Day wins against Michigan, he’ll once again be in the sweatbox. That’s hard to imagine with a record of 70-10. But to Jim Harbaugh’s point, being born on third base takes some of the shine off. Oddsmakers have the Buckeyes wins set at 10.5. I’ll take the under. I think they lose to Texas, Penn State, Michigan and falter against someone unexpected.
15. James Franklin – In my opinion Penn State’s coach is one of if not the best coach in the B1G. I know that is saying a mouth full when considering guys like Day and Lanning. However, Franklin has built his team from the ground up and shown a level of consistency over a time period no one else can match. His record is 101-42 over 11 seasons. Yes, he’s struggled against Ohio State and Michigan, and now Oregon. But that is about to change. Franklin brought in OC Andy Kotelnicki last season and now DC Jim Knowles this season and returns key skill players. That, plus three of the four biggest games for the Nittany Lions are at home against Oregon, Indiana, and Nebraska. They will travel to Ohio State. The oddsmakers are saying 10.5 wins. I’ll take the over as this is James Franklin’s year.
16. Brett Bielema – The pig farmer led Illinois to their first 10-win season in 23 years. Before the Illini, Bielema had success at Wisconsin but didn’t like being in Barry Alveraz’s shadow. He went off to Arkansas and quickly learned the SEC was a bad fit. Returning to the B1G and Illinois was a smart move by both parties. With continued success he could be at Illinois until he decides to hang up his cleats. The only threat of Illinois losing Bielema is if Iowa convinces him to move to Iowa City. Oddsmakers have the Illini at 7.5 wins. I’ll take the over, and Illinois finds a way to pay Bielema to set roots.
17. Dan Lanning – Oregon and Lanning beat Ohio State the first time they met in conference play and then beat Penn State in the B1G Championship. Duck fans already loved Lanning, but going 35-6 in three seasons has locked him in as Oregon’s head coach for as long as they continue to qualify for the playoffs. With expanding to 16 teams and Nike money that shouldn’t be a problem. Odds makers have the Ducks at 10.5 wins. Easy-peasy.
18. Barry Odom – The only way Odom isn’t at the bottom of the list is if Purdue is worse than they were last year, and that would be next to impossible. He is in his first year and after the Ryan Walters experiment, the Boilermakers won’t be eager to make another change. Odom comes in after having success at UNLV and going 19-8 in two seasons. Before that he was the head man at Missouri for four seasons going 25-25. The 2025 schedule is challenging with home games against USC, Illinois, Ohio State, and Indiana. The Boilermakers will travel to Notre Dame, Michigan, and Washington. The oddsmakers are saying 3.5 wins. I’ll go under. I can’t find more than 3.

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