Due to time constraints I’ve decided to select less than ten games. For now, I’ll choose between 5 and 8 games. During the weeks that matchups are more interesting and dictate the need, I may select more. There are some good games this week, and again there will be teams who fall out of contention for the CFP, while others prove they have potential.
Saturday, October 11th
(10) Alabama 4-1 vs (19) Missouri 5-0
ABC 11:00am
QB Beau Pribula transferred to Missouri from Penn State knowing Drew Allar would be the starter. With the way things have gone at PSU fans are asking if HC James Franklin kept the wrong guy. It’s a legitimate question, between Pribula and RB Ahmad Hardy, the Tigers have been racking up yards and running up scores, averaging 547.6 yards and 45.2 per game. The defense isn’t far behind, only allowing 203.8 yards and 14.6 points per game. However, the Tigers haven’t played anyone of Alabama’s caliber this season. Offensively, Bama can compete. QB Ty Simpson is getting Heisman attention with his play, throwing for 1,478 yards, 13 TDs and 1 interception. He has a group of good receivers in WR Germie Bernard 25/392 yards, 5 TDs, WR Ryan Williams 21/336 yards, 3 TDs, and WR Isiah Horton 18/236 yards, 3 TDs. This game will come down to defense, and while Missouri’s numbers are better, Alabama has played the better competition. The Tide will be playing at Missouri, but Kalen DeBoer’s team got an early season lesson at Florida State and won at Georgia. They’ll be ready for the Tigers. I like Alabama in this one.
OTC’s pick – Alabama 28-23
(1) Ohio State 5-0 vs (22) Illinois 5-1
FOX 11:00am
Which Illinois team will Ohio State get? The one we saw at Indiana, or the bounce back group that defeated USC at home. I felt Illinois was overrated going into the season and Indiana validated that. They are an 8-to-9-win team, but not CFP material. When the season started, I had my doubts about Ohio State. Early reports questioned Sayin starting as a freshman, and Matt Patricia taking over for Jim Knowles as DC was a wild card. But Sayin gets better every outing as HC Ryan Day adds to his plate. Plus, Patrica’s Buckeye defense only allows 215.8 yards and 5 points per game, and he has won the players over. Illinois will play hard and keep it close at home early, but no matter how well Bielema and his staff coach or how hard his team plays, Ohio State is too talented. The Illini don’t have enough firepower to challenge Ohio State.
OTC’s pick – Ohio State 31-17
Florida 2-3 vs (6) Texas A&M 5-0
ESPN 6:pm
It’s not will HC Billy Napier get fired, it’s when. Napier delayed things with a win over Texas, and he can buy some more time with a win over A&M. But for that to happen QB DJ Lagway and WR Dallas Wilson will have to have another breakout game. Lagway struggled early in the season, throwing 7 interceptions, but against Texas he found a connection with Wilson. A true freshman, the Texas game was Wilson’s debut, and it was a good one, as he caught 6 balls for 111 yards and 2 TDs. Florida’s defense is solid and kept the Gators in games early. They must have an exceptional game against the Aggies to win this one. QB Marcel Reed has thrown for 1,256 yards, 11 TDs and 3 INTs while running for 149 yards and 2 TDs. He has a pair of top-notch WRs to throw to in Mario Craver 30/557 yards, 4 TDs and KC Concepcion, 24/401 yards, 5 TDs. The Aggies also have a strong running game with Le’Veon Moss and Ruben Ownes II. But even if the Aggie offense sputters, their defense is opportunistic, with 18 sacks, 41 TFLs, 2 INTs and 2 FRs on the season. If A&M has one weakness, it’s that it’s penalty prone. Otherwise, the Twelfth Man can just sit back and watch in this one.
OTC’s pick – Texas A&M 27-17
(5) Oklahoma 5-0 vs (9) Texas 3-2
ABC 2:30pm
The narrative of this game has changed since the beginning of the season. Texas was ranked pre-season number 1 and people were chanting things like ‘Arch Madness’ and ‘Manning Mania’ for preseason Heisman candidate Arch Manning. Unfortunately, right now it appears Arch was over hyped. On the other hand, people wanted to say Oklahoma was good but weren’t willing to jump on board until they saw if HC Brent Venables could come up with an offense. That question has been answered in QB John Mateer. However, Mateer had surgery for a broken bone in his hand two weeks ago and is questionable for the game. Mateer has passed for 1,215 yards, 6 TDs and 3 INTs while rushing for 190 yards and 5 TDs. If he can’t go, backup Micheal Hawkins Jr. will start in his place. Hawkins has thrown for 167 yards and 3 TDs and rushed for 58 yards and 1 TD in a cleanup role. Hawkins will have some wiggle room, as it’s the Sonner defense that dominates. On the season they have 21 sacks, and 50 TFLs. They also only allow 193 yards and 7.2 points a game. Those numbers don’t bode well for a Texas as they have struggled running the ball at times and are only converting third downs at a rate of 34.38 % (22/64). The Longhorns also have a penchant for penalties. The one plus, Texas has an edge in the turnover battle. If Mateer were healthy and playing, I’d go Sooners all the way. I’ll still go Sooners. Something isn’t right with Arch and Texas.
OTC’s pick – Oklahoma 20-17
Nebraska 4-1 vs Maryland 4-1
BTN 2:30pm
Nebraska travels to Maryland for a game in which both teams will try to overcome Twilight Zone experiences in their last outings. Weirdness is the only way you can describe Nebraska vs Michigan State. Disbelief would be the word used for the Maryland collapse. Up 20-0 Maryland ran 19 plays for 52 yards and no points on their last four possessions of the game. Meanwhile they allowed Washington to run 45 plays for 298 yards and score 24 points. Nebraska will try to find consistency. Maryland, a young team, will try to overcome the lingering question of how they will respond the next time adversity strikes. Nebraska’s strength, the passing game and pass defense. Their weakness, protecting the QB. Maryland’s strength, their passing game, a strong run defense and putting pressure on the QB. Their weakness, the running game. The difference in this one will be special teams. It could be said Nebraska has already won two games this season because of special teams play. This game will more than likely come down to Mike Ekeler’s kickers and what he’s seen from Maryland.
OTC’s pick – Nebraska 27-20
(8) Indiana 5-0 vs (2) Oregon 5-0
CBS 2:30pm
We saw Indiana’s performance in the CFP last season, and we gave them a pass, they were never supposed to be there to start with. This season they picked up right where they left off. The Hoosiers were able to do that due to QB Fernando Mendoza. With Mendoza playing for Indiana and Dante Moore playing for Oregon, this game may be showcasing two NFL first round QBs. Moore started out at UCLA under Chip Kelley and sat last season behind Dillion Gabriel. He appears to have benefited from both. He’s thrown for 1,210 yards, 14TDs and 1 INT. He’s also rushed for 122 yards while only being sacked once. Mendoza also leads his team, throwing for 1,208 yards, 16 TDs and 1 INT. He’s rushed for 102 yards and 2 TDs and been sacked 5 times. Both QB’s have a strong supporting cast of skill players. When I started comparing stats, I was amazed at how similar they all were, QBs, penalties, turnovers, 3rd down efficiency, total yards, points scored, and points allowed, almost everything. Indiana is a slight favorite in sacks and TFLs on defense but that’s it. This game may be closer than some think. But I’m going with Oregon. One, they are at home, and two, Cignetti wasn’t talking like normal, I don’t believe he has the same brash confidence he normally has because he knows what’s coming.
OTC’s pick – Oregon 31-27
(20) Michigan 4-1 vs USC 4-1
NBC 6:30pm
Before the season the question was which one of these teams was the fourth best in the Big Ten. As of now that’s Indiana. But if the Hoosiers fall to Oregon and Michigan defeats USC, well it’s Michigan. Even if USC wins, they will still have work to do to qualify for 4th best in the Big Ten. It was expected that USC would look better this season, that HC Lincoln Riley would figure out the Big Ten. So far, it seems to be the same old story for Riley, the Trojans struggle on defense. While improving, they let Purdue score 17, Michigan State 31, and lost to Illinois 34-32. Offensively they average 565 yards and 48.4 points a game. For Michigan, that means slowing down QB Jayden Maiava, WR Makai Lemon, and RB Waymond Jordan as they’ve accounted for 2,713 yards of offense and 20 TDs in five games. Look for Michigan to line up and run the ball down USC’s throat. The Wolverines average 237.8 yards a game rushing and 6.4 yards per carry. Underwood has 27 carries on the season with a 6.7 yards per carry average. This one may go to whoever can score the most points. That could be Michigan if they control the ball and the clock. The difference in this game, QB Bryce Underwoods legs, along with LBs Ernest Hausmann and Jaishawn Barham on defense.
OTC’s pick – Michigan 30-28
(25) Arizona State 4-1 vs Utah 4-1
ESPN 9:15pm
These two were the leading candidates before the season to win the Big XII, but Texas Tech and their multi-million-dollar roster has put the rest of the Big XII on notice. Until then, ASU and Utah will fight for the right to have an outside shot at the CFP. The Sundevils surprised everyone last season and made it in. But things look different this season without RB Cam Skattebo. Sam Levitt hasn’t been the same QB this season and if it weren’t for kicker Jesus Gomez the Sundevils record could well be 1-4. Gomez is 11of 14 on the season and twice this season Gomez has made the game winning kick on the last play of the game. For Utah QB Deveon Dampier has kept the Utes competitive, passing for 1,027 yards, 11TDs and 3 INTs while rushing for 258 yards and 2 TDs. The Utes have a slight edge offensively. The Sundevils on defense. This one is a coin flip. I’ll call Utah.
OTC’s pick – Utah 27-24
Stats gathered from ESPN – Serving Sports Fans. Anytime. Anywhere.
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