Last week I went 4-5 straight up. It’s clear I’m a 50/50 picker at best. But like any good football fan, I won’t give up. Last week I wouldn’t say I even picked the best games. Maybe I’ll do better selecting games this week, although it’s doubtful I’m right about who will win. We’ll find out.
Friday, November 7th
Tulane 6-2 vs (23) Memphis 8-1
ESPN 8:00pm
Memphis is still looking to get in the CFP from the group of five. They were an early season favorite but were looked down upon after a loss to UAB. However, after a win over South Florida they are being talked about again. A win over Tulane would again make them a candidate. Tulane was also an early favorite, and with wins over Northwestern, Duke, and Army, along with a single loss to Ole Miss, they were on track. But dropping a game to UTSA last week hurt their chances. This one comes down to QB play. Both Tulane’s Jake Retzlaff and Memphis’s Brendon Lewis are the leading rushers on their teams. I like Memphis’s defense better.
OTC’s Pick – Memphis 31-24
Saturday, November 8th
(8) BYU 8-0 vs (9) Texas Tech 8-1
ABC 11:00am
Texas Tech has struggled this season keeping their QB on the field. Behren Morton started the first six games before getting injured. Will Hammond filled in for the next two games before tearing his ACL. 3rd string QB Mitch Griffs finished the Oklahoma State game in place of Hammond. HC Joey McGuire said Morton would start against BYU, that’s good news for Tech but only if they can keep Morton healthy, he’s been in an out of games over the last two seasons. QB hasn’t been an issue for BYU with Bear Bachmeier. The true freshman has passed for 1,693 yards, 11 TDs and rushed for 408 yards and 9 TDs. BYU beat Utah, Tech dominated Utah. The Red Raiders may be the best team in the Big XII and their stadium will be raucous, but it’ll all come down to their QB.
OTC’s Pick – Texas Tech 30-21
(5) Georgia 7-1 vs Mississippi State 5-4
ESPN 11:00am
Mississippi State HC Jeff Lebby led his team to their first SEC conference win last week against Arkansas. MSU has been close all season losing in overtime to both Tennessee and Texas. Georgia can’t take this team lightly. MSU is a good passing team, and Georgia hasn’t been able to get to the QB. They only have 8 sacks on the season. However, MSU has given up 29 sacks on the season. I like MSU at home, but Georgia is more balanced, and I’m not convinced MSU has figured out how to win yet.
OTC’s Pick – Georgia 31-24
(3) Texas A&M 8-0 vs (19) Missouri 6-2
ABC 2:30pm
Is there such a thing as trap games? If so, this is one of them. And I might have gotten on board if Missouri had their starting QB. Matt Zollers will start for the Tigers and while he looked good against Vanderbilt, he isn’t the running threat Beau Pribula was. On the other side of the ball, Marcel Reed of A&M leads an offense that averages 459 yards and 37 points a game. Meanwhile, the Aggie’s defense is deceiving, allowing points and yards but logging 66 tackles for a loss and 32 sacks on the season. Missouri’s defense is stout and will make the Aggies work for points.
OTC’s Pick – Texas A&M 27-20
(6) Oregon 7-1 vs (24) Iowa 6-2
ABC 2:30pm
Oregon doesn’t look like the Oregon we all know. Iowa does look like the Iowa we all know. That could spell trouble for the Ducks because there isn’t anyone that can ugly a game up like the Hawkeyes, especially at home. Oregon couldn’t get it done at home against Indiana, Iowa at home made Indiana look like mortals. Most of the numbers say Oregon should win this game, but the numbers are meaningless when talking about Iowa football. They tend to make teams beat themselves with penalties, turnovers, and mistakes on special teams.
OTC’s Pick – Iowa 19-17
LSU 5-3 vs (4) Alabama 7-1
ABC 6:30pm
LSU fired their HC and went into the bye. QB Garret Nussmeier has been beaten up and has had a week to recover. Will the Tigers come out rejuvenated with an interim coach and time to decide how they want to finish their season? If it were in Death Valley, I’d have more hope, but after a game one loss to Florida State, Bama has started to look like Bama of old. QB Ty Simpson seems to get better each outing, passing for 2,184 yards, 20 TDs, and 1 INT. Kalen DeBoer redeems himself again.
OTC’s Pick – Alabama 31-20
Navy 7-1 vs (10) Norte Dame 6-2
NBC 6:30pm
It’s a service academy with one loss and Notre Dame. If you know college football, then you know how big these games have been over the years. And even though Army and Navy aren’t the teams from those early years, you still want to believe the ghosts of the past will show up and make this a game. With a number 10 ranking, the Irish are getting more love than they deserve. With Miami dropping another game and their only quality win being USC, they can’t let this game be close. Notre Dame’s defense allows 90 yards rushing a game. The Midshipmen average 312 yards rushing per game. Notre Dame has too much talent.
OTC’s Pick – Notre Dame 35-14
San Deigo State 7-1 vs Hawaii 6-3
Spectrum 10:00pm
Leading the Aztecs to a 7-1 record, it appears Deion Sanders gave up on Sean Lewis too soon. While Lewis is an offensive minded coach, he’s winning games at SDS with defense. The Aztecs only allow 246 total yards and 10 points a game. They also have 10 interceptions, and 2 fumble recoveries during the season. The Rainbow Warriors are led by freshman QB Micah Alejado who has passed for 2,124 yards, 15 TDs, and 6 INTs. He’s been sacked 19 times and still rushed for 78 yards. He has a strong receiving corps and will challenge SDS.
OTC’s Pick – San Deigo State 24-20
The CFP Number Tracker, 4, 13, 21
Last week the CFP list included 44 teams. This week it’s down to 38. Next week the number will get lower again. The playoff committee needs to get to 12, what will the final number they have to work with be? Typically, there are sixteen teams who are realistic possibilities. If you are a team that is worried about being on the bubble, it’s simple, just win out and it will all take care of itself.
The Four
BYU 8-0
Indiana 9-0
Ohio State 8-0
Texas A&M 8-0
The Thirteen
Georgia Tech 8-1
Navy 7-1
North Texas 8-1
Memphis 8-1
Virginia 8-1
Louisville 7-1
Texas Tech 8-1
Oregon 7-1
San Diego State 7-1
Alabama 7-1
Ole Miss 8-1
Georgia 7-1
James Madison 7-1
The Twenty-one
Houston 7-2
Miami 6-2
Cincinnati 7-2
Vanderbilt 7-2
Tulane 6-2
UNLV 6-2
Notre Dame 6-2
Texas 7-2
Oklahoma 7-2
USC 6-2
Michigan 6-2
Utah 7-2
Missouri 6-2
Iowa 6-2
TCU 6-2
South Florida 6-2
Pittsburgh 7-2
Washington 6-2
Kennesaw State 6-2
Southern Miss 6-2
Western Kentucky 7-2
Results of my game picks each week can be found at Off The Cob (lyleharmon-otc.com)
Stats gathered from ESPN – Serving Sports Fans. Anytime. Anywhere.