Best Games Week 12 & CFP Tracker
The season is winding down, and every weekend is getting closer to nut cutting time. Teams and coaches are going to start feeling the pressure. It’s great to be a college football fan, as there are meaningful games every weekend. Not all these games look great at first glance, but they all have ramifications and will shake up the ranking within their conferences and the top twenty-five.
Friday, November 14th
Clemson 4-5 vs (15) Louisville 7-2
ESPN 6:30pm
I know what you are saying, why is this one on my list? Because Clemson was in the CFP last season and Kade Klubnik is still QB. They’ve looked better the last three games and Dabo knows they can still salvage some semblance of a successful season. The pressure is all on Louisville, a loss to Clemson would eliminate any hope they have. Louisville started out strong with wins over James Madison, Pittsburgh, and Miami. The loss to Virginia was understandable, the one to California wasn’t. The Tiger’s strength is the passing game with Klubnik and their wide receivers. The top three all have over 30 receptions for a total of 1,502 yards and 12 TDs. The Tigers also play team defense only allowing 106.2 yards rushing per game with 59 TFLs, 25 sacks, and 10 takeaways. The Cardinals have big play athletes in RB Issac Brown, 782 rushing yards for an 8.6 yard per carry average and WR Chris Bell, 62 catches for 792 yards and a12.8 yards per catch average. Miller Moss is steady at QB but has been sacked 19 times and thrown 7 INTs.
OTC’s Pick – Clemson 24-21
Minnesota 6-3 vs (9) Oregon 8-1
FOX 8:00pm
Yeah, this one is questionable too. But Iowa took Oregon to the limit and Minnesota plays the same ugly style of football Iowa does, just not as well. Oregon has adapted to Big Ten football to the point where they play it better than most of the conference. For Oregon the Iowa game was a good reminder. It’s a lesson they won’t forget against the Gophers. All the numbers suggest Oregon shouldn’t have any problems with Minnesota. Sometimes the numbers lie, but not in this case. Oregon only allows 239.3 yards and 13.8 points per game and the Gophers are not offensive juggernauts. There is a reason the Ducks are heavy favorites.
OTC’s Pick – Oregon 31-13
Saturday, November 15th
(21) Michigan 7-2 vs Northwestern 5-4
FOX 11am
This one is a little better, but still not one of the top games. It made it because Michigan has two losses, Northwestern is better than they get credit for, and it’s an elimination game for the Wolverines. As of now their plans are to win out and then knock off Ohio State in the season finale. The Wildcats will try to use the same ugly formula Iowa does, dragging teams down to their level. Michigan’s strength is running the ball with Justice Haynes and Jordan Marshall. The pair rushed for 1,586 yards, a 6.47 yard per carry average, and 18 TDs. If the Wildcats fall behind, they’ll struggle to move the ball passing, and Northwestern QB Preston Stone struggles to take care of the ball. Northwestern’s only hope, the arrival of a Michigan team that has played too conservatively all season.
OTC’s Pick – Michigan 24-17
(10) Notre Dame 7-2 vs (24) Pittsburgh 7-2
ESPN 11:00am
This one is an elimination game even if HC Pat Narduzzi doesn’t want to admit it. His thinking is that even if they lose to Norte Dame and then win both conference games, they have a legitimate shot at making the CFP. But after Notre Dame, wins against Georgia Tech and Miami is a tall order. And even if the Panthers win those games a loss to Notre Dame puts them at 9-3 and makes them a longshot at getting in. The alternative, win out. The same holds true for Notre Dame, their record will not allow another defeat. Pitt has found success with freshman QB Mason Heintschel who has led them to wins in his last five starts. Heintschel has thrown for 1,547 yards, 12 TDs and 5 INTs. He’s backed by a Pitt defense that has the 3rd best run defense in the nation, allowing just 80.9 rushing yards per game. They’ve also only given up 7 rushing TDs in nine games, have 70 TFLs, 24 sacks and 10 interceptions. And while Notre Dame’s strength is running the ball with Jeremyiah Love and Jadarian Price who have totaled 1,556 yards, a 6.0 yard per carry average and 22 TDs, the Irish aren’t one trick ponies. QB CJ Carr has passed for 2,275 yards, 19 TDs, and 4 INTs. The Irish defense also has teeth only allowing 102.6 yards per game rushing with 24 sacks and 16 interceptions. It’s just as well Narduzzi doesn’t care if his team loses.
OTC’s Pick – Notre Dame 31-22
South Florida 7-2 vs Navy 7-2
ESPN2 11:am
Of the group of five, the American Conference is the most likely to get a team in, making this an important game for both teams and the conference. It’s an elimination game. These two teams are led by their QBs. The Bulls’s Byrum Brown has passed for 2,203 yards and 19 TDs while rushing for 705 yards and 9 TDs. For the Midshipmen the offense runs through Blake Hovarth who has passed for 1,143 yards and 7 TDs while rushing for 926 yards and 13 TDs. South Florida has wins against Boise State, Florida, and North Texas while losing games to Miami and Memphis. Navy is lacking in big wins with their two losses coming to North Texas and Notre Dame. South Florida wins this one with the better defense.
OTC’s Pick – South Florida 31-28
Iowa 6-3 vs (19) USC 7-2
BTN 2:30pm
The games in the Big Ten this weekend are uneventful, making this the best game in the Big Ten conference this week. I said last week when Iowa played Oregon that no one could ugly up a game like Iowa. Well, that still holds true, and what makes it worse, USC doesn’t always need help looking ugly. The matchup to watch is USC’s offense against Iowa’s defense while being aware of special teams. The weatherman is calling for rain during the game. I’ve always believed that weather is the great equalizer in football. A wet ball isn’t conducive to USC’s passing game and is something most WRs hate. USC QB Jayden Maivia has been effective passing for 2,614 yards and 17 TDs while rushing for 113 yards and 6 TDs. He’s throwing the ball to two of the best WRs in the Big Ten in Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane. RB King Miller started the season as a 3rd stringer but after nine games he is the leading rusher. The Trojans offense averages 503.2 yards and 39.6 points per game. The Hawkeye’s defense starts with a strong defensive front in Aaron Graves, Ethan Hurkett, and Max Llewellyn. The trio has 65 tackles, 20 TFLs, 14 sacks, 1 INT, and 2 forced fumbles. At the next level it’s LBs Karson Sharar and Jaden Harrell. On the back-end playmakers are DBs Koen Etringer, Xavier Nwankpa, Zach Lutmer, and TJ Hall. They have 108 total tackles, 14 PD, 4 INTs and 1 TD. As a unit they only allow 250.2 yards and 13.7 points per game. Can Iowa overcome the disappointment of the last second loss to Oregon? Does USC play Big Ten football at home?
OTC’s Pick – Iowa 24-23
(12) Oklahoma 7-2 vs (4) Alabama 8-1
ABC 2:30pm
Oklahoma has done a good job of staying in contention even though they have one of the toughest schedules this season. This one is big for the Sooners, as a win moves them up in the rankings and a loss knocks them out. The game is at Bama, and Crimson Tide has steadily got better since their first game. Offensively QB Ty Simpson has been mentioned in Heisman conversations, passing for 2,461 yards, 21 TDs, and 1 INT. He also has 87 yards rushing and 2 TDs after being sacked 15 times. RB Jam Miller has been effective when needed. Sooner QB John Mateer started the season hot, but after an elbow injury sidelined him, he hasn’t been the same player with an 8 TD to 7 INT ratio. The Sooners aren’t a particularly good rushing team either, averaging 137 yards a game with a 3.9 yard per carry average. Oklahoma has relied on their defense which only allows 264.2 yards and 14.1 points per game. They only allow 82.4 yards rushing per game. Bama will need to show they can run the ball to keep the Sooners from teeing off on the QB. The Sooners have 97 TFLs, 33 sacks and 7 takeaways on the season. Bama’s defense is no slouch, as they allow 17.1 points per game.
OTC’s Pick – Alabama 24-19
(11) Texas 7-2 vs (5) Georgia 8-1
ABC 6:30pm
While Oklahoma–Alabama is a big game in the SEC, this one is bigger and maybe the best of the weekend. Texas and QB Arch Manning have been a disappointment this season, but the Longhorns still only have one conference loss. The rest of the conference has been trying to convince themselves Georgia isn’t Georgia and is down. But no one has shared that memo with Kirby Smart, as the Bulldogs just keep winning ball games. Part of the perception may be due to the Bulldogs not standing out in any one category. They are solid across the board. If there is one player that is overlooked while standing out it’s QB Gunnar Stockton. All he’s done is pass for 2,040 yards, 15 TDs, and 2 INTs while rushing for 321 yards and 7 TDs. As for Manning he got off to a bad start, but his numbers have steadily improved throughout the season. He has passed for 2,123 yards, 18 TDs, and 6 INTs while rushing for 203 yards and 6 TDs. Part of his struggles have been due to the offensive line and the lack of a running game. The Longhorns only average 3.9 yards rushing per attempt. Penalties have also been a problem, with 73 for 595 yards on the season. If the Horns want to stay in this one, it will be the defense that keeps them in it. They only allow 78.3 yards of rushing and 16.4 points per game. Sorry, Georgia is still Georgia.
OTC’s Pick – Georgia 24-24
The CFP Number Tracker, 3, 9, 22
Last week the numbers were 4, 13, 21, for a total of 38 teams still in the hunt. This week the numbers are 3, 9, & 22 and have dropped to 34 teams. Obviously, the number will drop again after Saturday. Several of the 22 are longshots but never say never. The playoff committee needs to get to 12 and I’m sure they breathe a sigh of relief every time the number drops. The goal for the undefeated teams is to stay that way, so they are one of the top four seeds. The one loss teams are trying to stay that way as well to stay off the bubble. The two-loss teams know they are already on the bubble but still in the running, and a third loss would all but eliminate them.
The Top Three
Indiana 10-0
Ohio State 9-0
Texas A&M 9-0
The Next Nine
BYU 8-1
Georgia Tech 8-1
North Texas 8-1
Texas Tech 9-1
Oregon 8-1
Alabama 8-1
Ole Miss 9-1
Georgia 8-1
James Madison 8-1
The Twenty-two Wanna-Be’s
Memphis 8-2
Virginia 8-2
Louisville 7-2
Navy 7-2
Houston 8-2
Miami 7-2
Cincinnati 7-2
Vanderbilt 8-2
Tulane 7-2
UNLV 7-2
Notre Dame 7-2
Texas 7-2
Oklahoma 7-2
USC 7-2
Michigan 7-2
Utah 7-2
South Florida 7-2
Pittsburgh 7-2
Kennesaw State 7-2
Southern Miss 7-2
Western Kentucky 7-2
San Diego State 7-2
Results of my game picks each week can be found at Off The Cob (lyleharmon-otc.com)
Stats gathered from ESPN – Serving Sports Fans. Anytime. Anywhere.