I’ve picked nine games this week. Four to five of them could potentially be considered elimination games. Some of these games do not have ramifications towards conference titles or qualifying for the CFP, but they all should be good competitive games. The two best games? Missouri vs Oklahoma and USC vs Oregon. The season is winding down, and every week counts.
Friday, November 21st
Hawaii 7-3 vs UNLV 8-2
FOX Sports 1
This should be a game worth watching. Hawaii’s strength is the passing game and freshman QB Micah Alejado has passed for 2,380 yards, 18 TDs, and 7 INTs on the season. He relies on WRs Jackson Harris and Pofele Ashlock. The pair has 1,364 yards and 16 TDs receiving. UNLV runs the ball better than the Rainbow Warriors and are led by RB Jai’Den Thomas’s 780 yards and 8 TDs. QB Anthony Colandrea is the second leading rusher with 512 yards and 7 TDs. He is also dangerous with his arm, passing for 2,527 yards, 18 TDs, and 6 INTs. Defensively the two teams are a wash statistically, however Hawaii is ranked 67th nationally on points allowed and UNLV is 114th. There is a reason this one is close. I want to pick UNLV, but something says it’s going to be Hawaii.
OTC’s Pick – Hawaii 31-30
Saturday, November 22nd
(23) Missouri 7-3 vs (8) Oklahoma 8-2
ABC 11:00am
Early in the season there was chatter about HC Brent Venables being under pressure. But with Oklahoma’s schedule and the way the Sooner defense has played, the noise has gone away. Now all the chatter is about Tigers HC Eli Drinkwitz. Will he be the next HC at Auburn, Penn State or LSU? With close losses to Alabama and Vanderbilt, and then a beat down from Texas A&M, the season hasn’t been what Missouri planned. Will the Drinkwitz leaving talk be a distraction? Oklahoma has had season defining wins at Tennessee and Alabama, now all they need to do is win out to make the CFP. That won’t be easy unless the Sooner offense gets back on track. There were flashes early in season from QB John Mateer, but Mateer hasn’t been the same after an arm injury and rushing back to play in a loss to Texas. His touchdown to interception ratio has taken a hit as well, 8 TDs to 7 INTs. The Sooner running game hasn’t been particularly strong either. With this team you don’t need to talk about anything but defense. The Sooners are 8th nationally in points allowed with 14.8 points per game. They’ve recorded 102 TFLs, 37 sacks, 7 INTs, and 5 fumble recoveries. Their strength is their front seven. The Tigers will challenge the Sooners with a running game that averages 242 yards a game, led by Ahmad Hardy who has rushed for 1,346 yards and 16 TDs. The key in this one will be who starts at QB for the Tigers. If Beau Pribula can come back from an ankle injury it will give the offense a boost. While freshman Matt Zollers has been solid, he’s still a freshman and the Sooner’s aggressive defense will take advantage of that.
OTC’s Pick – Oklahoma 27-17
Washington State 5-5 vs (21) James Madison 9-1
ESPN+ 12:00pm
James Madison’s schedule isn’t exactly on par with Oklahoma’s. Their one loss was to Louisville 28-14. Washington State’s hasn’t been either, although they did defeat San Deigo State, played Ole Miss to within 3 and Virginia within 2. Which means they may very well be one of the better teams JMU faces this season. James Madison has been waiting for this moment since Curt Cignetti put them in the spotlight. Considering how many players he took with him to Indiana the Dukes must be given credit. Looking at the numbers, this one says it should be all James Madison. The only thing in question is the level of competition. Still, I’m going with the Dukes. They rank 14th nationally in scoring with 37.1 points per game. I like QB Alonzo Barnett III’s stat line. He’s passed for 2,089 yards, 16 TDs, 5INTs, while rushing for 396 yards and 12 TDs. He’s supported by RB Wayne Knight, who has rushed for 840 yards and 7 TDs with 368 yards receiving and 1 TD. A win here for JMU would be big as it makes them 10-1 with one game left against Coastal Carolina.e
OTC’s Pick – James Madison 35-21
(16) USC 8-2 vs (6) Oregon 9-1
CBS 2:30
USC is finally looking like the team the Big Ten thought they were getting with HC Lincoln Riley, and there is hope they can be the fourth team from the B1G to make it into the CFP. But Oregon has more than a little to say about that. People are already writing Oregon off, saying they are far from the same team they were last season. But I’m not sure they aren’t better. They’ve been tested this season, and injuries have forced them to fall back on their depth chart, which means working harder. For USC, their offense can compete with anybody. QB Jayden Maiava has passed for 2,868 yards, 18 TDs, and 6 INTs, while rushing for 124 yards and 6 TDs. He relies heavily on WR Maki Lemon who has 71 receptions and 1,091 yards with 8 TDs. The USC running game has had to fall back on third and fourth string RBs but has remained solid. The problem for USC arises when you match their defense against Oregon’s offense. Oregon is 7th nationally in points scored per game with 39. The Duck’s offense runs through QB Dante Moore and RB Noah Whittingham. Moore distributes the ball well with 3 receivers having over 400 yards, 1 having over 300 yards, and 3 with over 200 yards in receptions. The Duck’s defense is also formidable, only allowing 13.7 points and 235 total yards per game. This is an elimination game for USC and comes down to their defense playing some of their best ball of the season.
OTC’s Pick – Oregon 31-24
Kentucky 5-5 vs (12) Vanderbilt 8-2
ESPN 2:30pm
Kentucky HC Mark Stoops was on the hotseat early in the season but by winning his last three games, two of them over Auburn and Florida, things have cooled. With games against Vanderbilt and Louisville he can continue to get on the right side of things and with his buyout and the number of jobs open, I’m not sure he’s going anywhere. If there is a coach on the move, keep your eyes on Vandy’s Clark Lea, his name has been mentioned for multiple jobs. But with Lea being a Vandy alum and the school recognizing a good thing when they see it, I’m not convinced he’s going anywhere. The turnaround at Vandy has revolved around QB Deigo Pavia. Pavia has brought a swagger to the Commadores and is the leader of this team. He’s passed for 2,440 yards, 21 TDs and 5 INTs, while rushing or 613 yards and 7 TDs. Kentucky defense will have its work cut out for them to contain him. Offensively Kentucky is balanced and has performed better in the last two games, but they don’t have a difference maker or a big play threat. Vanderbilt’s defense against the Kentucky offense is a wash. This one comes down to Deigo Pavia, shut him down and you win this game.
OTC’s Pick – Vanderbilt 31-22
Kansas State 5-5 vs (13) Utah 8-2
ESPN2 3:00pm
This one made the list because Utah can’t afford a loss and Kansas State is the last real threat on Utah’s schedule. And even then, it’s questionable how big a threat the Wildcats are. Kansas State has had a disappointing season with the lone bright spot being a win over in-state rival Kansas. The low points have been losses to Army and Baylor along with a thumping from Texas Tech. The Wildcats will have to work to avoid another low point when going to Rice-Eccles Stadium to take on the Utes. HC Kyle Whittingham is still looking to win the Big XII and will have no mercy on the Cats. QB Deveon Dampier leads the Utes. He has 1,668 yards passing, 17 TDs, and 5 INTs on the season. He’s also the team’s second leading rusher with 543 yards and 5 TDs. However, Dampier has been dinged up over the last couple of games and freshman QB Byrd Ficklin had filled in. Ficklin hasn’t thrown the ball much, going 21/34 for 301 yards and 3 TDs. Where he is a threat is running the ball. He’s rushed for 442 yards for a 9.4 yard per carry average and 7 TDs. With either QB Utah’s strength is running the ball, they average 278 yards per game rushing. Two sats to know, Utah is 6th nationally in points scored with 41, and 10th in points allowed with 16. Utah is the better team, and the Cats are in for a long day.
OTC’s Pick – Utah 31-21
Pittsburgh 7-3 vs (15) Georgia Tech 9-1
ESPN 6:00pm
Narduzzi wasn’t concerned with losing to Notre Dame. All he wanted to do was win his conference games. Georgia Tech is one of those games, but Narduzzi needs to be careful what he wishes for, the Rambling Wreck could be the team that puts the final nail in Pittsburgh’s coffin. Another win by Georgia Tech will do nothing to curb the talk of HC Brent Key being a candidate for better jobs. But are they better? Georgia Tech is Key’s alma mater and the Yellowjackets are in the middle of some of the best recruits available. This is essentially an elimination game for both teams. Although Pitt has three losses, they are still capable of winning the ACC. For me, this one comes down to the Pittsburgh’s defense versus Georgia Tech QB Haynes King. The Yellowjacket QB has passed for 2,259 yards, 10 TDs, and 2 INTs. He’s also the leading rusher on the team with 807 yards and 14 TDs. Georgia Tech averages 224 yards rushing per game. Pitt only allows 90 yards rushing per game. Something has gotta give. Pitt’s offense got better with freshman QB Mason Heinschel running the show. In seven games he’s passed for 1,673 yards, 12 TDs and 6 INTs. He’s also rushed for 150 yards and 1 TD. However, we saw last week against Notre Dame that the freshman can be rattled with pressure. Pitt’s defense has 77 TFLs, 25 sacks, 12 interceptions and 5 fumble recoveries on the season. Georgia Tech is -3 in turnovers. They say defense wins championships. This isn’t a championship game and it’s going to be super close.
OTC’s Pick – Georgia Tech 31-30
Nebraska 7-3 vs Penn State 4-6
NBC 6:00pm
Some are saying this Penn State team will be the most talented team Matt Rhule has faced since arriving at Nebraska. That’s saying a ton when you consider Rhule has faced national champions Michigan and Ohio State the last two seasons. But if there is anything I know from my years of watching football, it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the heart in the dog. Yeah, I know, that isn’t exactly how that saying goes. But football is all about heart, and where is Penn State’s heart right now? The Huskers are about to find out. At the time of this writing, Nebraska is a 7.5-point underdog, which is baffling to some considering Penn State’s record. But if you consider Nebraska’s true freshman QB is in his second start in a road game, it makes sense. Plus, there is something to say about Penn State’s talent and three of their losses being Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon. Plus, they too are playing their second-string QB. The Nittany Lions have faced as much adversity this season as anyone out there. Anybody who knows anything about these two teams knows this game comes down to Nebraska’s ability to limit Penn State’s running game. Nebraska on average allows 161 yards rushing per game. Penn State averages 160 yards rushing per game. Those numbers align, and Nebraska needs to keep it that way. They must keep the Nittany Lions under 200 yards rushing. That won’t be a small task with Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton at RBs. Allen has rushed for 917 yards and 12 TDs. Singlton has rushed for 419 yards and 9 TDs. Singleton also has 19 receptions for 156 yards and 1 TD. From a passing standpoint, QB Ethan Grunkemeyer has passed for 689 yards, 4 TDs, and 4 INTs. He’s been sacked 9 times. Penn State has four receivers with over 200 yards in receptions, however none have over 370 yards. Offensively, Nebraska needs to be able to run the ball effectively and pass enough to keep Penn State off balance. Emmett Johnson needs to continue his string of strong performances with 150 to 200 yards rushing. That won’t be easy. Look for Penn State to try to put pressure on QB TJ Lateef. And look for OC Dana Holgorsen to have a scheme which utilizes Lateef’s mobility. I think this one will be close. Nebraska needs to take Penn State’s heart out of it early.
OTC’s Pick – Nebraska 27-23
(11) BYU 9-1 vs Cincinnati 7-3
FOX 7:00pm
Before the season there was discontent with Cincy HC Scott Satterfield. But he’s put together a nice season in an improved Big XII conference. The Bearcats lost their opening game of the season, then went on a seven-game run and have now lost their last two. Can they get back on the winning track? It’ll be difficult against a good BYU team. The Cougars got a much-needed wakeup call from Texas Tech. They quickly came to the realization they weren’t all that and bag of chips. Freshman QB Bear Bachmeier has been a pleasant surprise for BYU, passing for 2,177 yards, 13 TDs and 4 INTs, while rushing for 479 yards and 10 TDs. But it’s been the Cougar’s defense that has stood out, only allowing 18 points per game and recording 60 TFLs, 25 sacks, 14 interceptions and 4 fumble recoveries on the season. But it’ll be the Cougar’s rush defense that will need to step it up, because Cincy is a good running team with three different threats, QB Brenden Sorsby is the second leading rusher on the team with 483 yards and 9 TDs, Cincy also has two top-tier RBs in Tawee Walker and Evan Pryor. Walker has rushed for 642 yards and 4 TDs while Pryor has 478 yards and 3 TDs. Sorsby can also spin the ball, passing for 2,218 yards, 22 TDs, and 4 INTs. His top target is WR Cyrus Allen who has 41 receptions for 517 yards and 10 TDs. I would like BYU better at home, but I think their defense gets it done.
OTC’s Pick – BYU 28-24
The CFP Number Tracker, 3, 8, 15
Last week the numbers were 3, 9, 22, for a total of 34 teams still in the hunt. This week the numbers are 3, 8, & 15, down to 24 teams. Ten teams dropped off the list with three losses. Even though they have three losses, they aren’t completely out of it, not yet anyway. There are two teams in the top twenty-five with three losses, Tennessee and Missouri. The playoff committee needs to get to 12 and every time the number drops their job gets easier. With only three undefeated teams, clinching that fourth seed becomes a race amongst the one loss teams.
The Top Three
Indiana 11-0
Ohio State 10-0
Texas A&M 10-0
The Next Eight
BYU 9-1
Georgia Tech 9-1
North Texas 9-1
Texas Tech 10-1
Oregon 9-1
Ole Miss 10-1
Georgia 9-1
James Madison 9-1
Fifteen Wanna-Be’s
Alabama 8-2
Virginia 9-2
Navy 8-2
Houston 8-2
Miami 8-2
Vanderbilt 8-2
Tulane 8-2
UNLV 8-2
Notre Dame 8-2
Oklahoma 8-2
USC 8-2
Michigan 8-2
Utah 8-2
Western Kentucky 8-2
San Diego State 8-2
Results of my game picks each week can be found at Off The Cob (lyleharmon-otc.com)
Stats gathered from ESPN – Serving Sports Fans. Anytime. Anywhere.