This is perhaps the biggest weekend in college football as some of these games will decide who plays for conference titles. Others will be elimination games for the CFP. But it is also the biggest rivalry week in college football, with games like the Iron Bowl, the Egg Bowl, and other cross state rivalries, Texas vs Texas A&M, Georgia vs Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt vs Tennessee. And you can’t leave out the border state rivalries like Nebraska vs Iowa, Oregon vs Washington, and Michigan vs Ohio State. These games become especially big for teams who won’t make the CFP or even a bowl game. It’s a fantastic week 14 lineup. I’ve picked nine games this week and have gotten totally carried away in my assessments.
Friday November 28th
Mississippi State 5-6 vs (7) Ole Miss 10-1
ABC 11:00Am
The Egg Bowl Trophy is at stake, but the bigger story is this game is the deadline for HC Lane Kiffin to decide if he is staying in Oxford or headed to Florida or LSU. I get the Ole Miss administration needing an answer, but it would have been far more beneficial for them to leave Kiffin alone and let things play out. Ole Miss will more than likely make the CFP and if they are without Kiffin, it directly affects their seeding. And what is the attitude of the team going into the playoffs without their head coach. Also, a program that has won the National Championship is much more attractive when trying to lure a new head man. It was a win-win for Ole Miss, but they got butt hurt because Kiffin wouldn’t make a knee-jerk decision. If I’m Kiffin, I’m out for no other reason than the school trying to bully me. But on to the game. Mississippi State would love to win this one and become bowl eligible. Jeff Lebby had a rough year one and this season could have gone better, but there has been noticeable improvement in the Bulldogs, and they’ve been close to having a better than 5-6 record. They lost by 2 to Florida and by 3 to Arkansas. And they took both Tennessee and Texas to overtime before losing. However, they are outmanned in this one. Ole Miss QB Trinadad Chambliss has passed for 2,657 yards, 14 TDs and 3 INTs, while rushing for 444 yards and 6 TDs. He distributes the ball well with 5 different Ole Miss receivers having over 450 yards receiving. RB Kewan lacey leads the team in rushing with 1,136 yards and 9 TDs for a 4.9 yard per carry average. Never say never, but Ole Miss should win this one and get ready for the CFP. The question is, will it be with or without HC Lane Kiffin.
OTC’s Pick – Ole Miss 41-21
Iowa 7-4 vs Nebraska 7-4
CBS 11:00
Kurt Ferentz has Matt Rhule’s number. The Huskers have had wins in the palm of their hands the last two season only to lose on walk-off field goals. I’m guessing it won’t be that way this season. Not after the performance I saw at Happy Valley. Unless Nebraska has some tricks up their sleeve on defense, Iowa’s offense will push Nebraska around. Iowa averages 174.5 yards rushing per game with a 4.6 yards per carry average. They also have a running QB in Mark Gronowski who has rushed for 472 yards and 11 TDs on the season. And that’s after losing 82 yards on16 sacks. Nebraska has shown they have no answers for a running QB. The Blackshirts allow 167.5 yards per game rushing at a 4.8 yard per carry average. Those numbers say the Hawkeyes will only pass when they want to catch the Huskers off guard. Offensively Nebraska averages 379.5 yards and 30.5 points per game. That breaks down to 242.6 yards passing and 136.8 yards rushing. Their average per rush is 4.4 yards. On defense the Hawkeyes allow 162 yards passing per game, 105 yards rushing and rank 9th nationally in points allowed with 15.1 per game. They allow 3.2 yards per rush. Meaning it could be a long day for the Huskers. The two Iowa players to watch on offense are QB Gronowski and RB Kamari Moulton. The 5’9” 205lb Moulton has rushed for 690 yards and 2 TDs on the season. He’s a powerful runner and Iowa likes to run him off the edge. Penn State had plenty of success against the Blackshirts doing just that. Nebraska may be forced to pass the ball, but they will need to be careful with freshman TJ Lateef, as Iowa has 11 interceptions on the season. The weatherman is calling for a chance of snow during the game, which isn’t exactly conducive to the passing game. It all spells trouble for Nebraska.
OTC’s Pick – Iowa 20-13
(4) Georgia 10-1 vs (23) Georgia Tech 9-2
ABC 2:30
Two weeks ago, Georgia Tech fans would have pointed to this game with real anticipation. But after Georgia Tech lost to Pittsburgh the excitement has cooled. Tech is no longer in the ACC title race. Still, it’s a big game for both teams, a Georgia win my move them up in the rankings. A Georgia Tech win could keep them alive for CFP consideration. Tech QB Haynes King has carried this team all season, when he struggles the Yellowjackets flounder. We saw that last week when he threw two interceptions. On the season King has passed for 2,516 yards, 12 TDs and 4 INTs. He is also the team’s leading rusher with 883 yards and 15 TDs. The key for the Bulldogs will be to contain King. Georgia is not a one man show even though QB Gunnar Stockton is having a better season than expected. Stockton has passed for 2,465 yards, 19 TDs, and 4 INTs while rushing for 361 yards and 8 TDs. His top target is WR Zachariah Branch who has 63 receptions for 638 yards and 3 TDs. The Bulldogs also have a strong running attack with Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens. The pair has rushed for 1,194 yards and 11 TDs with 21 receptions for 141 yards and 1 TD. While the Bulldog offense is explosive, it’s their defense that gets things done, only allowing 87.4 yards rushing per game. They are 12th nationally in points allowed with 17.4 per game. This one is the Kirby Smart defense versus Haynes King.
OTC’s Pick – Georgia 34-23
(16) Texas 11-0 A&M vs (3) Texas 8-3
ABC 6:30
Bevo versus the twelfth man. This was a rivalry game that was played every year from 1915 to 2011. Then A&M left for the SEC and killed it. How do you revise a rivalry like this, if you’re Texas you join the conference of the team that left. A&M fans were none too happy with Texas joining the SEC, and for a multitude of reasons. The Aggies will be looking to get revenge for a Longhorns win on their turf last season and didn’t appreciate the Texas celebration on their mid-field logo afterwards. Both teams come into this game with what could be called unexpected records. Texas was a preseason number 1 pick and was thought to be a potential national champion. A&M wasn’t expected to be undefeated at his point in the season. When looking at the season statistics I was surprised to see how even these two teams are. When doing a QB comparison, I would have told you Marcel Reed was statistically better than Arch Manning in most if not all categories. However, these are the numbers, Reed 2,752 yards, 25 TDs, 8 INTs. Manning 2,763 yards, 23 TDs, 7 INTs. It doesn’t stop there either, RBs, A&M’s Ruben Ownes, 570 yards, 5 TDs. Horn’s Quintrevion Wisner 442 yards, 3 TDs. WRs, A&M’s KC Concepcion 829 yards, 9 TDs. Horn’s Ryan Wingo 736 yards, 6 TDs. Defensive rushing yards allowed by A&M, 118.8 or 3.8 yards per carry. Horn’s, 92.7 or 2.8 yards per carry. Points allowed, A&M 39th nationally with 21.5 points. Longhorns, 25th nationally with 20 points. Everything says this one is going to be close, and with it being a long-standing rivalry, throw any and all logic out the door. I’m going with the upset. First because A&M has been playing with fire for more than a couple of games this season and two, it would throw the CFP committee into a tizzy. Texas is the highest ranked three loss team in the CFP rankings, and a win boosts them higher.
OTC’s Pick – Texas 27-25
Saturday November 29th
(1) Ohio State 11-0 vs (15) Michigan 9-2
FOX 11:00am
This is a game that is on everybody’s calendar and I mean everybody’s. Don’t think there aren’t teams in the SEC who are paying attention to this one, especially since these two teams have won the last two national championships. While this game is always big, the Michigan team we’ve seen this season isn’t expected to beat Ohio State. But they weren’t expected to beat the Buckeyes in the last two seasons either. All that saved Ryan Day’s job last season was winning the national championship. He can survive a loss this season, but losing three consecutive games to the Wolverines won’t be forgotten. Michigan’s two losses were both to ranked opponents in Oklahoma and USC. But they only won by 3 at Nebraska and 2 at Northwestern, which are both mid-level Big Ten teams. So, there is question as to how good the Wolverines really are. Meanwhile, Ohio State has looked unstoppable this season and has one of the top defenses in college football with DC Matt Patrica at the helm. The Buckeyes are number 1 in the nation in points allowed with 7.6 points per game. On average they allow 126.6 yards passing and 80 yards rushing for a total of 206.6 yards per game. They have recorded 67 TFLs, 29 sacks, 6 INTs, and 6 fumble recoveries. They have top tacklers at each level of the defense in LB Avrell Reece, DE Caden Curry, and DB Caleb Downs. Between the three they have 28 TFLs, 16.5 Sacks, and 157 total tackles. Which means it will be difficult for Michigan to move the ball with true freshman QB Bryce Underwood. He has shown both flashes of brilliance and at times freshman inexperience. On the season he has completed 62.2% of his passes for 2,166 yards, 9 TDs, and 5 INTs. He’s rushed for 322 yards and 5 TDs, despite being sacked 16 times for -82 yards. Coming into this one Underwood’s favorite target is WR Andrew Marsh. RB Jordan Marshall will start in place of the injured Justice Haynes. Marshall has rushed for 871 yards and 10 TDs on the season. Michigan’s defense will have their hands full with freshman QB Julian Sayin who has passed for 2,832 yards with a 79.4 % completion rate, 27 TDs, and 4 INTs. Sayin has two of the best receivers in college football in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Smith has 69 receptions for 902 yards and 10 TDs, and Tate has 39 receptions for 711 yards and 7 TDs. The OSU running game is led by RB Bo Jackson with 835 yards and 4 TDs. Defensively the Wolverines will rely on their strong linebacking crew. However, leading tackler Ernest Hausmann is questionable with an injury. Stopping the Buckeyes then falls to Jimmy Rolder and Jaishawn Barham. Defensively the Wolverines give up 302.5 yards and 17.9 points a game. Good numbers, but probably not good enough to stop OSU. A loss by Ohio State will not keep them out of the CFP and competing for a national championship. It does however knock them out of the Big Ten title game and boost Michigan into the mix.
OTC’s Pick – Ohio State 28-17
(6) Oregon 10-1 vs Washington 8-3
CBS 2:30pm
One of the great things about Oregon and Washington both joining the Big Ten was that it kept this rivalry alive and meaningful. And the game this season has meaning. The thing to watch here is Washington HC Jed Fisch’s name being floated around for the Florida job if Lane Kiffin goes to LSU. A loss to Dan Lanning and Oregon won’t change that, but a win would make the hire look even more impressive. Florida will be watching. Washington has fallen off late in the season dropping 2 of their last 5 games. The Michigan loss isn’t alarming, but the Wisconsin loss is concerning. Even though not as much so after Illinois lost to Wisconsin last weekend. However, while I like Washington QB Demond Williams and RB Jonah Coleman, I’m not sure how productive they can be against the Ducks defense. Washington averages 426.5 yards of offense per game (30th in FBS) and 35.5 points per game (19th in FBS). The Ducks defense allows 248.7 yards per game (3rd in FBS) and 14.9 points per game (8th in FBS). I like Oregon QB Dante Moore and RB Noah Whittington too, and when you throw in TE Kenyon Sadiq, WRs Dakorien Moore and Malik Benson, I like them even more. Offensively they average 471.8 yards per game (12th in FBS) and 39.8 points per game (8th in FBS). Washington’s defense allows 304.0 yards per game (18th in FBS) and 18.8 points per game (19th in FBS). I would have picked Oregon without seeing the numbers, but with the numbers I like the Ducks even more. The wildcard, the game is at Washington. Oregon has more to play for and needs the win worse than the Huskies do.
OTC’s Pick – Oregon 28-21
(12) Miami 9-2 vs (22) Pittsburgh 8-3
ABC 11:00am
Miami has had a disappointing season after starting out with a big win over Notre Dame. The wins over Florida and Florida State looked good as well, especially with Florida State defeating what has turned out to be a very good Alabama team. However, those two wins are less than impressive now. Pittsburgh on the other hand has been up and down but has done enough that if they win this game and Virgina or SMU lose, they’ll be in the ACC title game. After a convincing loss to Notre Dame, Pitt was impressive against a good Georgia Tech team. This game is going to come down to whether Pittsburgh can stop Miami’s passing game, because Miami isn’t great at running the ball and Pittsburgh’s defense can stuff the run. Miami averages 425.5 yards per game (31st in FBS). Breaking that down, they are 21st in passing and 76th in rushing. On defense Pittsburgh allows 330.0 yards per game (35th in FBS). Breaking them down, that’s 93rd in passing and 9th in rushing. So, look for the Hurricanes to run the ball just enough to keep Pitt honest. Pittsburgh’s offense is solid and relies on their passing game. They average 281.9 yards per game (18th in FBS) and average 37.6 points per game (12th in FBS). Miami allows 282.2 yards passing a game (12th in FBS) and gives up an average of 14.5 points (7th in FBS). Success in the passing game will separate one of these teams from the other. As of now that would be Miami’s experienced Carson Beck against Pitt’s freshman Mason Heintschel. Upset alert.
OTC’s Pick – Pittsburgh 25-24
(14) Vanderbilt 9-2 vs (19) Tennessee 8-3
ESPN 2:30pm
Vandy QB Deigo Pavia has been on what appears to be a Heisman Trophy run. A win with big numbers against in-state rival Tennessee would more than likely boost him over the top. While Pavia is having a special season with Vandy, I’m afraid the Commadores are one dimensional. If you can slow down Pavia, you have a good chance of winning. I know his coach Clark Lea calls him a difference maker, but one man can’t do it all, although the stats may suggest otherwise. Pavia has passed for 2,924 yards, 26 TDs, and 6 INTs. He’s also the team’s leading rusher with 661 yards and 8 TDs. He’s been sacked 17 times for -93 yards on the season. Tennessee thrives on its passing game with Joey Aguliar at QB. He has passed for 3,145 yards, 23 TDs, and 10 INTs. The interceptions have hurt the Volunteers at times this season, protection is a must. The Vols strength is their receiving corps, as WRs Chris Brazell II, Braylon Staley, and Mike Matthews have combined for 2,409 yards and 18 TDs on the season. Tennessee’s defense gives up 378.5 yards per game (75th in FBS) and 27.3 points per game (76th in FBS). Vandy’s defense gives up 353.4 yards per game (55th in FBS) and 21.7 points (42nd in FBS). However, that total includes giving up 248.4 yards passing per game (113th in FBS). If the Vols can slow Diego Pavia down and run their passing game like we’ve seen them do, and take care of the ball, I like their chances in this one.
OTC’s Pick – Tennessee 31-30
LSU 6-4 vs (8) Oklahoma 9-2
ESPN 2:30
At the beginning of the season several people would have told you with Oklahoma’s schedule they wouldn’t make the CFP. With a win here they’ll be in, and with good reason. Their two losses are to Texas and Ole Miss. But they have wins over Michigan, Tennessee, Alabama and Missouri. I doubted Brent Venables, but he’s put together a defensive unit that is causing problems in the SEC. They currently rank 6th in the nation in points allowed, 14.0 per game and 3rd against the run, 81.1 yards per game. They have posted 110 TFLs, 41 sacks, 8 INTs, and 4 fumble recoveries on the season. It’s a good thing the defense has been playing like they have because they have been outgained in their last three games. Between the defense and QB John Mateer, who has done just enough offensively that the Sooners continue to come out on the right side of things. Mateer seems to have a knack for making the big play or getting the first down when needed. LSU has had a rough season, losing games early, head coach Brian Kelly got fired, and several starters knocked out with injuries. While LSU will bring one of the most talented rosters to Norman that the Sooners have seen this season, their performance will revolve around team morale. I don’t see LSU looking or performing as Penn State did last weekend against Nebraska. This one will be a defensive battle. LSU is playing to improve their record. Oklahoma is playing for their playoff life. I like the Sooners at home.
OTC’s Pick – Oklahoma 23-13
The CFP Number Tracker, 3, 7, 13
Last week the numbers were 3, 8,15, for a total of 24 teams still in the hunt. This week the numbers are 3, 7, & 13, down to 23 teams. There will be two teams making the playoffs. The chances of a three-loss team making the CFP are almost impossible. There are 7 three-loss teams in the CFP top twenty-five rankings with Texas being the highest ranked at number 16. The playoff committee needs to get to 12 and every time the number drops their job gets easier. With only three undefeated teams, clinching that fourth seed becomes a race amongst the one loss teams.
The Top Three
Indiana 11-0
Ohio State 11-0
Texas A&M 11-0
The Next Seven
BYU 10-1
North Texas 10-1
Texas Tech 10-1
Oregon 10-1
Ole Miss 10-1
Georgia 10-1
James Madison 10-1
Thirteen Wanna-Be’s
Georgia Tech 9-2
Alabama 9-2
Virginia 9-2
Navy 8-2
Miami 9-2
Vanderbilt 9-2
Tulane 9-2
UNLV 9-2
Notre Dame 9-2
Oklahoma 9-2
Michigan 9-2
Utah 9-2
San Diego State 9-2
~Lyle Harmon
Stats gathered from ESPN – Serving Sports Fans. Anytime. Anywhere.
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