I’ve decided that I’ll pick multiple games, but I’ll only delve into three or four of what I consider the best of the week. The others I’ll just comment on. This way I can hit on games of interest without investing a serious amount of time.
Friday October 17th
(25) Nebraska 5-1 vs Minnesota 4-2
FOX 7:00pm
Nebraska’s do everything RB Emmett Johnson returns home to Minnesota to take on the Golden Gophers. Johnson, who had his best game as a Husker last week, wants nothing more than to beat his hometown school. Minnesota didn’t recruit him out of high school after being selected as ‘Mr. Football’ by the Minnesota Football Coaches Association in 2021. Johnon’s desire to win isn’t lost on his teammates and several of them along with this coaching staff have their own axe to grind, having lost at Huntington Bank Stadium two years ago in a game they should have won. Add the fact that Minnesota has defeated Nebraska the last five times they’ve met, and well, you have a team that is highly motivated. Seeing this Nebraska team over the last two weeks makes me believe if they are ever going to win a game over PJ Flecks team at home, it’s this season. Having just picked up a number 25 ranking, the Huskers will have a huge target on their backs, and the Gophers will be equally motivated. This is a new look offense for Fleck. Normally he fields a power running team, but this season the Gophers have relied on the pass, with true freshman Drake Lindsey throwing for 1,284 yards, 10TDs, and 4 INTs. All the numbers indicate this is a good match-up for the Huskers. However, if there is anybody that has Nebraska’s number, it seems to be Fleck. The Huskers get it done and bring home a win.
OTC’s pick – Nebraska 31-20
Louisville 4-1 vs (2) Miami 5-0
ESPN 6:00pm
Miami has won three of the last four games, but the two teams have only been separated by a touchdown in the last two games. Miami comes in highly ranked, and Louisville would love nothing more than to defeat the Hurricanes at home. With HC Jeff Brohm leading the Cardinals, that isn’t an unreal prospect. But not this year. Miami is too talented.
OTC’s pick – Miami 34-21
Saturday October 18th
Washington 5-1 vs Michigan 4-2
FOX 11:00am
Michigan HC Sherrone Moore isn’t in trouble, but conversations would pick up if the Wolverines lost a third game at this point in the season. Expectations are high for Jedd Fisch and the Huskies after starting out 5-1. A win in Michigan would make them bowl eligible and build even more momentum. I like HC Jedd Fisch, QB Demond Willimas, and RB Jonah Coleman in this one.
OTC’s pick – Washington 24-21
(10) LSU 5-1 vs (17) Vanderbilt 5-1
ABC 11:00am
Another coach who isn’t really on the hotseat, but fans are talking about, is Brian Kelly. A loss to Vanderbilt does more damage than a win does good for Kelly. But Vandy is overrated, their only quality win is over South Carolina, and they weren’t competitive against Alabama in their single loss. LSU’s only loss is to Ole Miss and while their wins aren’t against juggernauts, they were decent teams in Clemson, Florida and South Carolina. Since the Alabama loss, Vandy QB Diego Pavia hasn’t had much to say, is that a good sign or a bad? It’s bad, LSU is still the better team.
OTC’s pick – LSU 24-21
(4) Texas A&M 6-0 vs Arkansas 2-4
ESPN 2:30pm
This one is on the list because Arkansas’s losses were all to ranked opponents, losing to (5)Ole Miss by 6, (22)Memphis by 1, (13)Notre Dame by 43, and (11)Tennessee by 3. Other than the Notre Dame game that got HC Sam Pittman fired, the Hogs have been close. Offensively they will push A&M, averaging 511.5 yards of total offense a game. Their weak links have been defense and turnovers. In one of his first moves as interim HC, Bobby Petrino fired DC Travis Williams and two defensive assistants. With the changes the Razorbacks showed improvement last week against Tennessee. Petrino has gained momentum with fans for the head job and a win against a top ranked team may make it a lock. The Aggies need to prove they are a top ten team and can avoid a trap game, because lollygagging through this one would be a mistake. The Hogs lose another close one.
OTC’s pick – Texas A&M 31-28
Mississippi State 4-2 vs Florida 2-4
SEC Network 3:15pm
This one is on the list for two reasons. One, I think Mississippi State is better than their record and HC Jeff Lebby has them headed in the right direction. Two, a Florida loss will more than likely make this Billy Napier’s last game as head coach of the Gators. Mississippi State’s two losses were to (11)Tennessee and (4)Texas A&M. Coming off a bye, they’ve had time to heal and concentrate on Florida. After upsetting Texas, Florida had a poor showing against Texas A&M. It all adds up to making this one interesting.
OTC’s pick – Mississippi State 24-21
Penn State 3-3 vs Iowa 4-2
Peacock 6:00pm
I’ve listed this one simply because I want to see how Penn State responds to Franklin’s firing. Also, Iowa’s strength is defense and with Penn Sate going to their backup QB and having two of the best running backs in the country, look for the Nittany Lions to give the Hawkeyes a strong dose of the running game. Penn State needs a win. Iowa can’t afford another loss. Iowa in a close snoozer of a game.
OTC’s pick – Iowa 17-14
SMU 4-2 vs Clemson 3-3
ACC Network 2:30pm
Last year these two teams played for the ACC championship, and both qualified for the CFP. Now they are struggling to keep up with the top four teams of their conference, Miami, Georgia Tech, Virginia, and Duke. The loser is done, the winner stays alive, in the ACC at least.
OTC’s pick – Clemson 28-20
(5) Ole Miss 6-0 vs (9) Georgia 5-1
ABC 2:30pm
Kirby Smart has had a good run, leading his Bulldogs to a 110-20 record and 2 National Championships. But Georgia hasn’t looked like Georgia this season. That doesn’t mean the Bulldogs won’t win the CFP, but its evident teams are catching up. One of those is Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin. Kiffin is in his sixth year at Ole Miss and has a record of 50-18. This will be Smart’s and Kiffin’s third meeting as head coaches of Georgia and Ole Miss. They’ve split the last two games with the home team winning both times. With both being assistants for Nick Saban at Alabama, they know each other well and there is a mutual respect. Statistically the numbers say this game will be competitive. Georgia averages 414.8 yards and 32.2 points per game. Ole Miss averages 515.3 yards and 37.8 points per game. Georgia allows 307.2 yards and 17.0 points per game. Ole Miss allows 337.7 yards and 19.2 points per game. Difference makers for Ole Miss are QB Trinadad Chambliss and RB Kewan Lacey. Chambliss has thrown for 1,286 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT, and rushed for 281 yards and 3 TDs. Lacey has 126 carries for 587 yards and 8 TDs. Chambliss’s top three receivers have 53 receptions for 1,069 yards and 6 TDs. For Georgia, as Gunnar Stockton goes, so goes the Bulldogs. Stockton has passed for 1,264 yards, 6TDs, and 1 NT. He’s been sacked 8 times and still rushed for 220 yards and 6 TDs. Defensively these two teams are one number from one another in TFLs, sacks, interceptions, and forced fumbles. As close as they are, Ole Miss breaks the home team cycle.
OTC’s pick – Ole Miss 27-24
(20) USC 5-1 vs (13) Notre Dame 4-2
NBC 6:30pm
USC and Notre Dame is and has always been a classic, even when both teams are at a low. But this year the game is interesting because Notre Dame is ranked number 13 with their two losses being (2)Miami and (4)Texas A&M. Notre Dame does not have a win over a ranked opponent this season. Illinois, which is unranked, also has two losses, to (1)Ohio State and (3)Indiana and the Illini defeated a ranked opponent in (20)USC. This is a big game for both teams in keeping their pursuit of qualifying for the CFP alive. Notre Dame would be out with a loss. USC would need to make it to the Big Ten Championship for a realistic chance. Lincoln Riley continues to look like a QB whisper with how Jayden Maiava has been playing. Maiava had thrown for 1,852 yards, 13 TDs, and 2 INTs. Between good protection and staying mobile, he’s only being sacked 3 times and rushed for 50 yards and 4 TDs. He’s also supported by a strong running game and skilled receivers like Makhi Lemon, 44 catches, 682 yards and 6 TDs. Defensively Notre Dame’s defense is strong against the run and allows an average of 351.5 yards and 20.8 points per game. They do however have 11 interceptions in 6 games. They’ll be challenged by the Trojans passing game. Offensively the Irish are led by QB CJ Carr. Carr spreads the ball around with his top three receivers having a total of 67 catches for 1,057 yards and 4 TDs. The Irish also run the ball well with Jeremyiah Love and Jadairan Price. Love has 100 carries for 530 yards and 8 TDs with 14 receptions for 160 yards and 4 TDs. Price has carried the ball 63 times for 422 yards and 7 TDs. Defensively, USC only allows 108.3 yards rushing per game. They also have 45 TFLs, 20 sacks, 8 interceptions and 6 forced fumbles. The game will be close, with the only advantage being Notre Dame is at home. That will be enough.
OTC’s pick – Notre Dame 35-32
(11) Tennessee 5-1 vs (6) Alabama 5-1
ABC 6:30pm
The story of the spring was UCLA and Tennessee exchanging QBs. Some thought UCLA got the better end of the deal, but Tennessee hasn’t missed a beat with Joey Aguliar at the helm. Give HC Josh Heupel credit. The Vols only loss was by 3 points to Georgia. Alabama was given up for dead after losing to Florida State in the season opener, but QB Ty Simpson has looked better each time he’s hit the field with wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Missouri. Tennessee has the better running game. Alabama’s defense is giving up 100 less yards a game than Tennessee. But Tennessee’s defense is more aggressive with 50 TFLs, 26 sacks, 4 interceptions, and 11 forced fumbles on the season. Still, I like Alabama at home.
OTC’s pick – Alabama 33-27
(23) Utah 5-1 vs (15) BYU 6-0
FOX 7:00pm
There was panic at BYU before the season started when former QB Jake Retzlaff entered the transfer portal. With BYU now 6-0, Retzlaff is a distant memory. True freshman Bear Bachmeier has filled in nicely, passing for 1,220 yards, 8TDs, and 3 INTs. He’s also rushed for 295 yards and 7 TDs. Stopping Bachmeier will be the Utes main objective. The Cougars objective will be no different, as everything runs through their QB Devon Dampier. A transfer from New Mexico, Dampier has a 71.5% completion rate for 1,131 yards, 11 TDs, and 3 INTs. He too is a good runner, with 378 yards rushing and 5 TDs. This one will be close, but after Dampier rushed for 120 yards on 10 carries and scored 3 TDs against Arizona State in his last outing, I like the more experienced QB in this one.
OTC’s pick – Utah 27-21
Well, 2,000 words later, I invested a serious amount of time in this article. Maybe I won’t go into so much detail in posting results.
For results of my game picks each week you can go to Off The Cob (lyleharmon-otc.com)