I’ve picked ten games this week several being top 25 matchups. Two games that aren’t are Illinois vs Washington with both teams being 5-2, and Arizona State vs Houston. Houston’s record is 6-1 with their lone loss being to Texas Tech. Arizona State just defeated Tech in a close game, making this one a sure add to the list this week. Last week Florida coach Billy Napier was fired after a win and Florida State’s coach Mike Norvell’s seat got hotter with a fourth loss to Stanford. Of the seven games I’ve picked this week, the only coach who is under any pressure is LSU’s Brian Kelly. These are all good games and picking this week wasn’t easy.
Saturday October 25th
(8) Ole Miss 6-1 vs (13) Oklahoma 6-1
ABC 11:00am
Ole Miss came out strong and then collapsed late against Georgia last weekend for their only loss of the season. The loss didn’t cause them to fall far in the polls but following up with a win over Oklahoma at home could put them in the top six. But that will be a difficult task against the Sooner’s defense, as they only allow 213 total yards a game and have registered 75 TFLs and 28 sacks on the season. The question here is, can the Rebel’s score against the Sooners. And if so, can QB John Mateer keep pace with Ole Miss QB Trinadad Chambliss.
OTC’s Pick – Oklahoma 27-24
(18) South Florida 6-1 vs (22) Memphis 6-1
ESPN2 11:00am
Even though Memphis lost to UAB last week this game still has implications for the CFP and the group of five. South Florida has played the better schedule and has some quality wins. Memphis’s schedule isn’t impressive and the loss to UAB may have exposed them, as they struggle against the pass. South Florida’s QB Byrum Brown will be the difference in this one.
OTC’s Pick – South Florida 34-27
(15) Missouri 6-1 vs (10) Vanderbilt 6-1
ESPN 2:30pm
Vandy took down South Carolina early and then had a poor showing against Alabama, but defeating LSU last week reignited the talk of Deigo Pavia being a Heisman candidate and the Commadores making the CFP. Eli Drinkawitz’s name is being floated around for the Penn State and Florida job. Is that a distraction? Playing at Vandy, it better not be. Two names will determine the outcome of this game, Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy and Vandy QB Deigo Pavia. If Missouri’s O-line can find success against the Commodores defensive front seven, Hardy will put up yards. He’s rushed for 840 yards and 11 TDs on the season. As we’ve seen Pavia can take over games with both his arm and his legs. He’s passed for 1,569 yards, 11 TDs, and 4 INTs and is Vandy’s leading rusher with 438 yards and 4 TDs. Will it be the Tigers or the Commadores defense that steps up and neutralizes one of these guys. I like Vandy’s chances at home.
OTC’s Pick – Vanderbilt 34-30
(23) Illinois 5-2 vs Washington 5-2
BTN 2:30pm
With Illinois being the fourth best team in the Big Ten right now and Washington good enough to win this game, it becomes one of interest. Illinois lost convincingly to the two top teams in college football, Ohio State and Indiana. But if they can get past a talented Washington team, they could make the CFP. With the bottom dwellers of the conference remaining on their schedule, (Rutgers, Maryland, Wisconsin), I won’t include Northwestern, the Illini have a shot at going 10-2 with a win over the Huskies. Jedd Fisch and his team are kicking themselves over their poor performance against Michigan and are looking get back on track. Washington’s offense runs through QB Demond Williams and RB Jonah Coleman. Williams has passed for 1,837 yards, 10 TDs and 4 INTs while rushing for 363 yards and 4 TDs. Three of his four interceptions came last week against Michigan. Coleman has rushed for 568 yards and 12 TDs on the season. On the other side the ball, QB Luke Altmyer has taken care of the ball for the Illini throwing 13 TDs and only 1 INT. He’ll look for top target WR Hank Beaty who has 39 receptions for 617 yards and 3 TDs on the season. This one is close, and I’m torn, going into the season I thought Illinois was overrated. I still do.
OTC’s Pick – Washington 28-24
(11) BYU 7-0 vs (22) Iowa State 5-2
FOX 2:30pm
BYU comes off a big win against Utah in the Holy War. Iowa State started out the season strong and looked like a BIG XII champion, but one score losses to Cincinnati and Colorado in the last two outings have exposed some Cyclones weaknesses. They gave up 260 yards rushing to Cincinnati. That’s scary since BYU is 2nd in the Big XII in rushing and 10th nationally. They rush for 232.9 yards per game with a 5.5 yard per carry average. Leading that charge is QB Bear Bachmeier who has rushed for 359 yards and 8 TDs. He’s also passed for 1,386 yards, 9 TDs and 3 INTs. For Iowa State, QB Roco Becht has thrown for 1,622 yards, 9 TDs and 3 INTs while rushing for 91 yards and 7 TDs. He distributes the ball well with 5 different Cyclone receivers having 200 yards plus in receptions. BYU’s defense is allowing 171.4 yards per game passing and 121.6 yards per game rushing. Winning in Ames will be a challenge for the Cougars.
OTC’s Pick – BYU 26-23
(3) Texas A&M 7-0 vs (20) LSU 5-2
ABC 6:30pm
Mike Elko is looking like the right hire for A&M. Brian Kelly’s seat just keeps getting hotter, and a third loss to a rival like LSU could get things stirring in Baton Rouge. LSU’s offense has been disappointing this season. QB Garrett Nussmeier has struggled after being an early season Heisman candidate. He’s only completed 66.4% of his passes and has thrown 5 interceptions. LSU’s poor running game hasn’t helped Nussmeier. Texas A&M has had their share of close games with a 1-point win over Notre Dame, a 6-point win over Auburn and a 3-point win over Arkansas. Between QB Marcel Reed and the Aggie defense, they’ve been able to stay on the right side of the scoreboard. Death Valley will be ready for the Aggies, but they’ve been there before.
OTC’s Pick – Texas A&M 24-20
Houston 6-1 vs (24) Arizona State 5-2
ESPN2 7:00pm
Some in Houston questioned hiring Willie Fritz from Tulane, and while he hasn’t won the Big XII just yet, he already has his team bowl eligible. Like Indiana’s Curt Cignetti, all Fritz has done wherever he’s been is win. Houston’s lone loss was to a good Texas Tech team, but other than that they haven’t played teams in the upper half of the conference. That’s about to change. Arizona State will give Fritz and the Cougars all they want. Statistically these two teams are evenly matched, but ASU has played the tougher schedule. Their losses were to a decent Mississippi State team on the rise, and a good Utah team. And last week they made a late comeback to defeat #7 Texas Tech. If QB Sam Levitt stays healthy and kicker Jesus Gomez once again enters with his late game heroics, I like the Sun Devils at home in this one.
OTC’s Pick – Arizona State 24-21
Not the Best, But Outcomes with Consequences
These three games play no role in the CFP. However, they could get one coach fired, and another hired. Or they could validate one team as truly on the rise and another as one of the biggest disappointments of the 2025 season. And finally identify one team as contender in their conference, and one as a pretender. It’s all part of what makes college football one of the greatest sports ever.
Mississippi State 4-3 vs Texas 5-2
SEC Network 3:00pm
Texas’s season hasn’t been what anyone expected, a preseason number one, a week one loss, getting upset at Florida, then upsetting Oklahoma in a big rivalry, to an overtime win against an average Kentucky team. It all spells trouble against Mississippi State team that is ready for a breakout game at home. Out come the cowbells and a crowd hungry for a win over a premier program.
OTC’s Pick – Mississippi State 28-20
Auburn 3-4 vs Arkansas 2-5
SEC Network 11:30pm
Auburn and Hugh Freeze can’t afford a loss to Arkansas with Vanderbilt and Alabama still on the schedule. Unless they upset one of those teams they would need to win out over Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mercer just to get to 6-6 and be bowl eligible. But no matter what happens, don’t expect Hugh Freeze to be the HC at Auburn next season. Arkansas interim HC Bobby Petrino is auditioning for a job, whether it’s at Arkansas or somewhere else. He has the Hogs rolling offensively and is at home. The Razorbacks finally get a win.
OTC’s Pick – 32-24
Northwestern 5-2 vs Nebraska 5-2
BTN 11:00am
While the outcome of this game is vital to both schools this is a must-win game for the Huskers. One team becomes bowl eligible with their sixth win and picks up momentum for their next opponent, which is USC for both teams. One thing the Huskers can’t do is let Northwestern put together double-digit drives, control the clock, and put points on the board and that is exactly what the Wildcats will try to do. They run the ball well, emphasize defense, and play smashmouth football. As for Nebraska, seven games into the season it would be difficult to say they have established an offensive identity. They have been explosive at times and ran the ball well against Maryland, but you can hardly call them a threat in the passing game after giving up 25 sacks on the season. Look for a different Husker team against Northwestern. I anticipate the Blackshirts will try to get to the quarterback and wreak havoc on the Wildcats. Offensively, Holgorsen and Donavan Raiola were embarrassed at Minnesota and won’t let it happen again. What that looks like, I’m not sure, but I’m guessing it will resemble Maryland more than Minnesota. Nebraska wins with special teams.
OTC’s Pick – Nebraska 23-21
Once again, I spent way too much time on these. I keep saying I’m going to cut back, and then once I get started, well it snowballs from there.
Results of my game picks each week can be found at Off The Cob (lyleharmon-otc.com)
Stats gathered from ESPN – Serving Sports Fans. Anytime. Anywhere.