Nebraska enters this week’s huge matchup with Michigan facing its most daunting challenges of the season. The Wolverines are fresh off a 52 carry, 390 yard rushing performance against Central Michigan, and the numbers are every bit as intimidating as they look on paper. For a Husker defense that is smaller up front and has shown vulnerability against running quarterbacks, this is a true gut check game.
Michigan’s freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood is already proving why he was one of the most hyped recruits in the nation. Against Central Michigan, he gashed the defense with his legs, rushing nine times for 114 yards and two touchdowns. That’s over 10 yards per carry. Combine that with the explosiveness of running back Justice Haynes, who is averaging 7.9 yards a carry this season, and it’s clear Nebraska’s defensive front will have to play its best game of the year.
The concern is not only that Michigan can pound the ball, but that they can do it from multiple directions. Their offensive line is built to maul defenses, and they are comfortable running 50 plus times if that’s what it takes to win. Nebraska’s defensive line, which has been questioned for its size and depth, will have to play with perfect technique and relentless effort to stand a chance at slowing this down. It’s not just about stopping one running back, it’s about containing a quarterback who can turn broken plays into backbreaking gains. The blackshirts will have to play with violence this week to stop the run.
Still, there is a glimmer of hope for the Huskers. Michigan’s offensive line, as dominant as it can be in the run game, has shown some cracks in pass protection, giving up three sacks already. More importantly, Underwood is still very much a freshman quarterback. His completion percentage sits at 57 percent, which is below average for a top tier program. If Nebraska can find ways to get Michigan behind the chains and force Underwood into obvious passing situations, suddenly the game swings back into a more favorable light. First downs will be huge for the Huskers defence, hold them to under 2 yards on first down and your chances of stopping the drive go up by an average of 70%. And with a freshman QB, that number will be more like 80% only if we can contain on third and long.
That’s why the key for Nebraska is a fast start. If the Huskers can score early, build a lead, and force Michigan to put the ball in the air, the entire game dynamic changes. Nebraska’s secondary is experienced enough to take advantage if Underwood is asked to do too much too soon. But none of that will matter if the Huskers allow Michigan to establish its run game early.
On the offensive side, Dylan Raiola has to shine. He has been very good so far, but against Michigan, very good will not be enough. Nebraska will need him to deliver big throws, extend drives, and spread the field to keep the Wolverines from stacking the box. Raiola has the weapons at receiver and tight end to create matchup problems, but he will need to play one of his best games yet.
At the same time, Nebraska cannot afford to abandon the run. A balanced attack is essential. The Huskers need at least 150 rushing yards to keep Michigan honest. If they become one dimensional, Michigan’s defensive front will pin their ears back and make life miserable for Raiola.
In the end, the formula for Nebraska is clear but difficult, start fast, stop the run as much as possible, and put the ball in the young quarterback’s hands. If Raiola can play great and the defensive line has its best performance of the season, the Huskers have a real chance to shock Michigan. The keys to victory will be if the Huskers can limit 1st down runs or 3 yards or more, Limit QB scrambles on 3rd down and get out to an early lead. Linebacker play needs to be immaculate while we expect Watson-Trent to have a breakout game against Michigan also look out for McGahee to show major improvement. The Huskers are well rested after 2 warm-up games, and hopefully are healthy. Expect a close game with the Huskers having a chance in the 4th quarter. If we can accomplish these things, Nebraska pulls out a 21-27 win.