This season I picked what I thought were the best games each week. Overall, I picked 140 games straight up over the season and went 77-63. I would have done much worse if I had picked the spread. Being a college football fan, how can you watch a game without picking who you think will win.
The CFP committee took criticism for Notre Dame not making the playoffs since they were ranked higher than Miami until the final week of the season. However, Mami defeated Notre Dame head-to-head erasing any argument the Irish might have had. If anything, a three loss Alabama shouldn’t have been in. But the CFP committee is never going to penalize a team for a loss in the conference championship. That leaves JMU as the team that shouldn’t have made it in. And I would have been good with that. Looking at their schedule it’s hard to see them doing anything in the CFP.
So, once again, here are my picks for the first round of the college football playoffs. Again, straight up, no spread.
Friday December 19th
(9) Alabama 10-3 vs (8) Oklahoma 10-2
ABC 7:00pm
Oklahoma gets the home game in the first round of the playoffs. When the playoffs were expanded to twelve teams, I thought awarding home games was genius. This game is a rematch, with Alabama losing at home 23-21. Both head coaches started the season under pressure, as neither had met the expectations of the fanbase the previous year. The Sooners Venables can survive a loss far better than the Tide’s DeBoer. Not winning a playoff game in his first two seasons and a second loss to Oklahoma may send DeBoer headed to Michigan. Alabama’s other two losses this season were to Florida State and Georgia in the SEC Championship game. The Tide did however defeat Georgia 24-21 early in the season. Oklahoma’s two losses came at the hands of Texas and Ole Miss. This one will come down to two things. Which team can run the ball better and Bama’s Ty Simpson staying upright against a dominant Sooner pass rush. The Sooners average 3.7 yards per carry and the Tide, 3.6 yards per carry. The Sooners have 41 sacks this season and sacked Simpson 4 times in the last meeting. That’s meaningful as Simpson has struggled late in the season when pressured. The wild card will more than likely be Sooner’s QB John Mateer. He has repeatedly come up with the big play when needed throughout the season. The winner plays (1) Indiana.
OTC’s Pick – Oklahoma 19-17
Saturday December 20th
(10) Miami 10-2 vs (7) Texas A&M 11-1
ABC 11:00am
I would like to pick Miami in this one, but with this game at Kyle Field it’ll be difficult for the Hurricanes to overcome. These two teams had one common opponent during the season, Notre Dame. Maimi won 27-24. A&M won 41-40. A&M had two other close wins this season, 45-41 against Arkansas and 31-30 against South Carolina. They then lost to Texas 27-17 in the last game of the season and are one of two teams entering the playoffs after a loss. Alabama is the other. Miami’s two losses on the season were to Louisville 24-21 and SMU 26-20. There are several key matchups in this one, but the biggest may be A&M’s pass rush versus Miami’s O-line. The Aggies have 41 sacks on the season, but the Hurricanes have only allowed 11 sacks all season. Miami has an advantage at QB with Carson Beck’s experience with a record of 34-5 as the starter at Georgia and Miami. However, Beck and Aggie QB Marcel Reed have both thrown for 25 TDs and 10 INTs this season. The hidden stat may be Miami’s plus 9 in turnover ratio versus A&M’s -7. The Hurricane defense has 12 interceptions, 2 TDs, 8 fumble recoveries, and 12 forced fumbles on the season. They also have 34 sacks on the season. This one could be closer than anyone imagines. The winner plays (2) Ohio State.
OTC’s Pick – Texas A&M 27-24
(20) Tulane 10-2 vs (6) Ole Miss 11-1
TNT 2:30pm
The story line here is Lane Kiffin leaving for LSU and not finishing with the Rebels. I understand the Ole Miss AD not allowing him to coach, but it seems to me it would have been a win-win situation if they had. It would have kept team continuity, and a possible national championship win would have gone a long way with a new coaching hire and recruits. The way it is the staff is fractured and who knows where the player’s heads are. Defensive coordinator Pete Golding has been named head coach but most of the offensive staff is leaving for LSU with Kiffin and Golding has been trying to hire coaches and retain players while preparing for this game. On the other side of the ball Tulane has allowed HC Jon Sumerall to continue to coach the Green Wave after accepting the head coaching job at Florida. It’ll be interesting to see how that philosophy works for both schools. This game is a rematch from earlier in the season with Ole Miss winning 45-10. Tulane is one of two Group of Five teams to make the CFP. Their other loss was to UTSA 48-26. Their best win was over the ACC Champion Duke. Ole Miss’s only loss was to Georgia 43-35 after a fourth quarter collapse. However, with everything that has transpired neither of these teams are the same as the last time they met. Both teams are led by dual threat QBs. Ole Miss’s Trinadad Chambliss has passed for 3,016 yards, 18 TDs, 3 INTs, while rushing for 470 yards and 6 TDs. Tulane’s QB Jake Retzlaff has passed for 2,862 yards, 14 TDs, 6 INTs, while rushing for 610 yards, and 16 TDs. Ole Miss has the better running game with RB Kewan Lacey rushing for 1,279 yards and 20 TDs. The wildcard, Tulane is plus 10 in turnover ratio while Ole Miss is -2. The winner plays (3) Georgia.
OTC’s Pick – Ole Miss 35-21
(24) James Madison 12-1 vs (5) Oregon 11-1
TNT 6:30pm
James Madison made the jump from FCS to FBS in the 2022 season, so being part of the CFP is a huge accomplishment for the Dukes. Their lone loss came against one of the two power four opponents they played, Louisville 28-14. Their best wins of the season were against Old Dominion and Washington State. If Notre Dame has a bone to pick with the CFP it’s because of JMU. Oregon only loss of the season was to number one ranked Indiana 30-20. Otherwise, the Ducks were seriously challenged only twice, by Penn State in a 30-24 overtime win and a last second win over Iowa 18-16. One thing we’ve learned this season is that even though teams make the CFP it isn’t without outside hurdles. Both teams are dealing with coaching changes. JMU HC Bob Chesney will be the new HC at UCLA. Oregon is losing both their offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching jobs. Will Stein will be headed to Kentucky and Tosh Lupoi will be going to Cal. All three coaches will remain with their teams during the playoffs. Both teams’ game centers around their QBs. For Oregon it’s Dante Moore who has passed for 2,733 yards, 24 TDs, 6 INTs, while rushing for 191 yards and 1 TD. For JMU it’s Alonza Barnett III who has passed for 2,533 yards, 21 TDs, 8 INTs while rushing for 544 yards and 14 TDs. Oregon hasn’t played in almost three weeks, allowing several of their players to recover from injuries. I like the Ducks at home over the Dukes. The winner plays (4) Texas Tech.
OTC’s Pick – Oregon 34-10
Quarter final games will be played on December 31st and January 1st.
Stats gathered from ESPN – Serving Sports Fans. Anytime. Anywhere.
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