With the regular season over, Championship Weekend has finally arrived. I’ll apologize upfront, I haven’t listed every championship game. While it isn’t that I’m not interested, it’s just that I have concentrated on games that will influence the CFP committee’s selection process. Of the seven games I’ve listed, only six of the fourteen teams are ranked in the CFP’s top twelve. That doesn’t mean that teams who are ranked lower, like North Texas, Tulane, and James Madison won’t make it in. It just means the teams ranked higher could really mix things up with wins or losses. Alabama being one of them.
December 5th
Sun Belt Championship
Troy 8-4 vs (25) James Madison 11-1
ESPN 6:00pm
James Madison moved up to the FBS in 2022 and over the last four seasons have a combined record of 39-10. The first two seasons they were led by Curt Cignetti, the last two, by future UCLA coach Bob Chesney. Now JMU has a chance to make the CFP. All they need is a convincing victory over Troy and a loss by Virgina against Duke in the ACC title game. Both are possible.
The CFP committee will pick the five highest ranked conference champions. The Big Ten, SEC, and Big XII will get three of those bids. The fourth would typically go to the ACC champion. The fifth to the Group of Five champion, which will be either North Texas or Tulane. However, if Duke wins, they will have 5 losses compared to JMU’s 1. And with Duke unranked by the CFP and JMU ranked at 25, there’s a possibility the ACC wouldn’t get a team in, and a second Group of Five team would be selected, which could be James Madison.
Duke has played a tougher schedule but two of their losses are to Group of Five teams, Tulane and Connecticut. JMU’s only loss was to a good Louisville team. JMU is explosive and has beaten conference opponents by 27.4 points per game this season. They rank 10th nationally in scoring with 37.8 points per game. They are picked to win over Troy by 21 points, and if they do so, with a Virgina loss, the CFP committee would have their work cut out for them.
OTC’s Pick – James Madison 31-13
AAC Championship
(24) North Texas 11-1 vs (20) Tulane 10-2
ABC 7:00pm
This could be one of the better games of the weekend, as the winner is guaranteed a spot in the CFP and the loser is out. Both head coaches have accepted positions at other schools but are staying to coach in this game and then the CFP with a win.
Both offenses are led by top tier QBs and keep their offenses moving. North Texas is 1st in the FBS in offense with 510.1 yards per game. They are 2nd in passing yards with 324.8 yards per game and 1st in points scored with 46.8 per game. They are led by QB Drew Mestemaker who has passed for 3,845 yards, 29 TDs, and 4 INTs. He has 57 yards and 5 TDs rushing after being sacked 13 times for the season.
Tulane is led by Jake Retzlaff who has passed for 2,717 yards, 14 TDs, and 6 INTs. He’s also the Green Wave’s leading rusher with 561 yards and 14 TDs. He’s been sacked 8 times this season.
Both defenses are strong with Tulane recording 74 TFLs, 29 sacks, 12 INTs, and 7 fumble recoveries.
North Texas has logged 67 TFLs, 23 sacks, 13 INTs, and 12 fumble recoveries. They are +14 in turnover ratio.
Tulane will need to limit penalty yards as that’s been a factor for the Green Wave all season. North Texas’s lone loss for the season was to South Florida. Tulane’s two losses were to Ole Miss and UTSA. This one has the potential to be a high scoring affair.
OTC’s Pick – North Texas 34-30
Mountain West Championship
UNLV 10-2 vs Boise State 8-4
FOX 7:00pm
This is the third season in a row these two teams have met for the Mountain West title. There was a four-way tie in the conference and these two won out over New Mexico and San Deigo State.
The two teams met earlier in the season with Boise State winning convincingly 56-31. The game was competitive across the stat sheet except on the scoreboard.
UNLV QB Anthony Colandrea has passed for 3,050 yards, 22 TDs, and 8 INTs, while rushing for 555 yards and 8 TDs. He’s been sacked 22 times.
The Broncos QB Madux Madsen has passed for 1,994 yards, 15 TDs and 7INTs while rushing for 70 yards and 3 TDs. He’s been sacked 14 times.
Boise RB Dylan Riley handles the running game, rushing for 1,016 yards and 10 TDs with 6.2 yard per carry average.
UNLV has the slightly better offense in both yardage and points.
Boise State has the better pass defense.
UNLV averages more penalty yardage per game.
Boise State ranks 8th in the FBS with an average time of possession of 33:21.
UNLV scores 89.1% of the time when reaching the red zone.
Flip a coin, this one will be close. But for Boise State, it’s hard to beat a team twice.
OTC’s Pick – UNLV 30-24
December 6th
Big 12 Championship
(11) BYU 11-1 vs (4) Texas Tech 11-1
ABC 11:00am
BYU’s only loss came at the hands of the Red Raiders earlier this season, losing 29-7 in Lubbock. Don’t expect that big of gap this time around, even if Tech is a two-touchdown favorite. Tech’s only loss was to Arizona State 26-22.
It’s hard to be surprised by Tech’s success with the money they’ve spent on their roster. It shows the most in their defensive front seven led by Jacob Rodriguez.
This season Rodriguez has been a wrecking ball with 104 total tackles, 10 TFLs, 1 sack, 4 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries and 7 forced fumbles. The last time the Cougars saw him he had 14 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 interception and 1 fumble recovery. His partner in crime is fellow LB David Bailey who has 16 TFLs and 12.5 sacks on the season.
BYU averages 194.5 yards per game rushing, but Tech held them to 67 yards in Lubbock.
Tech ranks 3rd nationally in points per game with 43.2 and 3rd in points allowed per game with 11.2.
BYU QB Bear Bachmeier makes the Cougars go with 2,593 yards passing, 14 TD, 4 INTs and 529 yards rushing and 11 TDs. He has good run support in LJ Martin, who has rushed for 1,229 yards and 11 TDs.
This one will come down to Bachmeier’s ability to move the ball against Rodriguez and his Red Raider teammates. It won’t happen.
OTC’s Pick – Texas Tech 30-17
SEC Championship
(3) Georgia 11-1 vs (9) Alabama 10-2
ABC 3:00pm
A more competitive SEC with the same old teams in the title game. While some may have not expected Alabama to be in this game, how many times have we seen this matchup? Alabama could be knocked out of the CFP with a loss. And Georgia’s only loss this season was to Alabama 24-21.
Georgia is 12th nationally with 16.7 points allowed.
Alabama is 11th with 16.5 points allowed.
Bama hasn’t run the ball particularly well this season with a 3.7 yard per carry average.
Georgia only allows 86.1 yards per game rushing.
Gunnar Stockton has passed for 2,535 yards, 20 TDs, 5 INTs while rushing for 403 yards and 8 TDs. He’s been sacked 15 times.
Tide QB Ty Simpson has passed for 3,056 yards, 25 TDs, 4 INTs and has rushed for 126 yards and 2 TDs. He has been sacked 22 times.
Alabama is +8 in turnover ratio, Georgia -1.
Alabama’s FG kicker is 13/20 on the season, Georgia’s kicker is 15/16.
Alabama lost to a 5-7 Florida State team and a10-2 Oklahoma.
Kirby Smart is 1-7 against Alabama and 0-2 against Kalen DeBoer. Georgia doesn’t look like the Georgia of the last few years, but they keep on winning. Kirby gets his win.
OTC’s Pick – Georgia 24-20
Big Ten Championship
(2) Indiana 12-0 vs (1) Ohio State 12-0
FOX 7:00pm
Both teams are in the CFP win or lose. Does that change how these head coaches approach the game? Not for Indian’s defense, they’ll play fast, create havoc, and cause turnovers. And that’s what they’ll bring with them Saturday when they play against one of the best teams in the country in Ohio State. The question for HC Curt Cignetti is, can he get his team to take that next step and win the Big Ten Championship.
If Ohio State has a weakness this year, it’s that they haven’t been challenged. My worry here is that last season Ohio State lost to Michigan and still won the Natty. Is there a deep hidden mentality now that it’s okay to lose. A loss here doesn’t change the goal. I’m not saying they won’t play hard or don’t want to win, I’m just asking if they can be rattled. There was a great feeling of relief from both players and coaches after the win against Michigan. It all adds up to bad juju. Look at Penn State after the Oregon loss this season.
Both teams are talented, but this will be a quarterback game.
OSU’s QB Julian Sayin may be a freshman but he’s having the kind of season that has stirred up Heisman talk. He’s gotten better as the season has gone on, passing for 3,065 yards, 30 TDs, and 5 INTs with a 78.9% completion rate. He’s only been sacked 6 times. Offensively the Buckeyes average 438.5 yards and 37 points per game. They are 13th in the nation in points scored. They average 267 yards per game passing.
Offenively the Hoosiers are led by QB Fernado Mendoza. He too is getting Heisman buzz, and with good reason. This season Mendoza has passed for 2,758 yards, 32 TDs, 5 INTs, while rushing for 243 yards and 6 TDs. He’s been sacked 15 times this season. On the season the Hoosiers average 438.8 yards and 44.3 points per game. They are 2nd in the nation in points scored. They rush for an average of 229.8 yards per game.
As a team the Hoosier defense has 103 TFLs, 34 sacks, 16 INTs, 8 fumble recoveries and 9 forced fumbles. They allow 251.8 yards and 10.9 points per game on the season. The points allowed are 2nd in the nation. They give up an average of 172.5 yards passing per game.
Ohio State’s defense has 70 TFLs, 30 sacks, 7 INTs, 6 fumble recoveries, and 8 forced fumbles. They only allow 203 yards and 7.8 points per game. The points allowed are 1st nationally. The Buckeyes allow 81.7 yards rushing per game.
The most noticeable statistic between the two teams is turnover ratio, Indiana is +17, Ohio State +6.
This is a great matchup and has the potential to be one of the better Big Ten Championship games we’ve seen for a while. If you had to pinpoint keys in this one, I’d have to say for Indiana it’ll be getting pressure on the young QB Sayin. He hasn’t been pressured all season. For Ohio State, it’ll be slowing down Indiana’s running game.
OTC’s Pick – Indiana 24-21
ACC Championship
Duke 7-5 vs (17) Virginia 10-2
ABC 7:00pm
It’s not even debatable whether these are the two best teams in the ACC this season. They aren’t. If the ACC doesn’t get a team in the CFP, which is a possibility if Duke wins, you can bet the ACC will review how title game teams are selected. Virgina already defeated Duke convincingly during the season 37-17.
The QB matchup may well determine this one, with Virgina’s Chandler Morris and Duke’s Darian Mensah.
Duke will need their offense and QB Darian Mensah to click. Mensah has the ability if he gets help. On the season he has passed for 3,450 yards, 28 TDs, and 4 INTs. He’s rushed for a TD but has negative yards rushing after being sacked 24 times on the season. Help will have to come from RB Nate Sheppard and WR Cooper Barkate.
The Duke offense averages 421.4 yards and 34.6 points per game. 289.3 yards per game comes from the pass.
On defense Virgina allows 311.7 yards and 20 points per game. The give up an average of 203.4 yards per game passing.
Virginia QB Chandler Morris is a dual threat, passing for 2,586 yards, 14TDs, 7 INTs, while rushing for 248 yards and 5 TDs. He’s been sacked 14 times. He’ll need J’Mari Taylor to help carry the load. Taylor has rushed for 997 yards and 14 TDs while having 39 receptions for 219 yards.
The Virgina offense averages 433.2 yards and 33.2 points per game. 244.7 yards per game comes from the pass.
Defensively Duke allows 414.7 yards per game and 29.4 points. 273.7 yards of that is allowed through the pass.
The Group of Five is rooting for a Duke win, as it could eliminate the ACC from getting a team in the CFP and allow two Group of Five teams to get in. It won’t happen, one ESPN, the ACC, and the CFP committee won’t let it, and two, Virgina wins.
OTC’s Pick – Virgina 31-27
Stats gathered from ESPN – Serving Sports Fans. Anytime. Anywhere.
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