You often hear people ask, “What did the numbers say?” Sometimes the numbers are right, and sometimes they aren’t. The numbers said Nebraska couldn’t beat Ohio State. They didn’t, but the game didn’t exactly go by the numbers.
Ohio State Nebraska
Total yards per game: 472 Yards allowed:285 (Avg.301)
Passing per game: 284 Yards allowed:221 (avg. 204)
Rushing per game:126 Yards allowed:64 (avg. 98)
Points per game: 40 Points allowed:21 (avg. 18)
Nebraska Ohio State
Total yards per game: 358 Yards allowed:273 (avg. 254)
Passing per game: 232 Yards allowed:152 (avg. 163)
Rushing per game:126 Yards allowed:121 (avg. 91)
Points per game: 24 Points allowed:17 (avg. 12)
Nebraska held OSU to 1 of 10 on 3rd downs, 1 of 4 on 4th downs, had 2 sacks, 7 tackles for a loss, and 1 interception.
Ohio State had 3 sacks, 13 tackles for loss, and 1 interception.
The numbers tell us this was a defensive battle. Both teams held the opposing offense almost equal to or below their season average in all categories. And while losing, this was Nebraska’s most complete and best defensive performance of the season.
The difference in the game? Nebraska did not score after Hartzog’s interception. They had four shots with the ball inside the ten-yard line. Points must be scored in those situations. They also had the ball and were in position to drive for the winning points and couldn’t make it happen. Offensive consistency is still a factor.
It would be easy to say poor officiating also affected the game. But the age-old answer is, if you do all the other things right, you win anyway. The numbers against Ohio State weren’t what was expected. But the story they tell rings true.
So, what do the numbers say about UCLA? They say Nebraska should win Saturday. I’ll tell you right now, I like the numbers. But I don’t trust them.
UCLA Numbers to Know
First time head coach DeShaun Foster is in year one at UCLA. He is a UCLA alum and played in the NFL. Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy served as Andy Ried’s offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs and has coached in multiple Super Bowls. He knows his way around a play sheet. This staff is experienced but new in the college game and the B1G.
Bieniemy will be sending plays into Senior QB Ethan Garbers. At 6’3” 210lb, Garbers can be dangerous. He’s experienced and has completed 124 of 181 passes for 1,484 yards and 8 TD’s. He has a 65% completion rate. On the downside, he has thrown 9 interceptions.
Garbers’ top receivers are 6’6” 263lb tight end Moliki Matavao, who has caught 20 balls for 251 yards for a 12.6-yard average. Behind him is running back TJ Harden. At 6’2” 220lbs, Harden has caught 26 balls for 238 yards and a 9.2-yard average. Harden is also UCLA leading rusher, with a paltry 180 yards on 62 carries on the season for a 2.9 average with 1 TD.
Offensively the Bruins average 17.4 points a game and have a 37% efficiency rate on 3rd down. They average 238 passing yards a game and 65 rushing yards per game. Their average yards per carry is 2.5 and they have only scored 3 rushing touchdowns. Coming into the Nebraska game they’ve allowed 20 sacks and have a turnover ratio of -7.
The top 3 tacklers are all linebackers. It starts with Carson Schwesinger, at 6’2” 225lbs he is a tackling machine with 72 total tackles, 45 solo, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble. Next is Kain Medrano, at 6’3” 230lbs, he has 40 total tackles, 29 solo, and 1 forced fumble. They’re followed by Oluwafemi Oladejo, at 6’3” 250lbs, he has 36 total tackles. 14 solo, and 1.5 sacks. These are big aggressive linebackers that can cover the field.
Defensively, UCLA gives up an average of 269 yards passing a game and 99 yards rushing. They have logged 10 sacks, 4 interceptions, 3 forced fumbles and allowed an average of 29 points a game.
They have a solid kicker in Mateen Bhaghani. He is 11/11 on extra points and 10/12 on field goals. His 2 misses were attempts of over 40 yards, so the long ball isn’t his specialty.
All the numbers say this game will come down to who can defend the pass and rush the ball. Both teams struggle with rushing and stopping the run is a strength of both defenses. The numbers also say this could be a huge game for Death Row. UCLA has given up 20 sacks and Nebraska is 2nd in the B1G in sacks.
But regardless of what the numbers tell you, UCLA is dangerous. The games they lost were to 13th ranked Indiana, 16th ranked LSU, 1st ranked Oregon, 3rd ranked Penn State and unranked Minnesota. Those five teams have a combined record of 34-5. UCLA is better than their record indicates, and they have improved each outing.
If we ignore the numbers, then what do we look for? Well, with this Nebraska team, it isn’t numbers, and it isn’t what happens on Saturday. With this team it’s what happens Monday through Friday.
It’s between the ears.
Will the Huskers be psychologically prepared to intimidate UCLA from the start and destroy their confidence? Emotionally, this team has been riding the waves. Sky high against Colorado, flat against Illinois, somewhere in a deep dark hole against Indiana, and ready to go against Ohio State. Matt Rhule feels like this team has turned a corner. Saturday against UCLA we’ll find out. This game sets the tone for the rest of the season.
Good things need to happen.
Go to Off The Cob for more on Husker football.
All stats gathered from ESPN.com
