Nebraska travels to sunny California this weekend to take on the USC Trojans. This a matchup of two college football bluebloods who are both trying to live up to their history. Lincoln Riley has been trying to get USC into the playoffs and back to a national championship game since his arrival three years ago. Matt Rhule is trying to get Nebraska back on the winning side of things and to a bowl game after an eight-year drought. Neither is having much luck as both teams have been up and down this season and have struggled to register wins. This is a big game for both schools and both coaches have shaken things up this past week.
Lincoln Riley did so by benching his starting quarterback Miller Moss and naming sophomore Jayden Maiava as his replacement.
As for Rhule he hired and named Dana Holgorsen his offensive coordinator with three games left in the season. Previous offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield remains with the team as the tight ends coach. To say it was a unique move is an understatement. But with the addition of the transfer portal and NIL, the college football landscape has changed. A move like this is yet further evidence of that.
The numbers tell us USC should win this game, but with the inconsistency of both teams, it seems to me it’s anybody’s game to lose and numbers sometimes lie. Here are the numbers.
USC’s season record is 4-5. They’ve lost to Michigan by 3, Minnesota by 7, Penn State by 3, and Maryland by 1. Their best win was the opener against LSU. They were up on both Michigan and Maryland late in the game only to lose.
USC’s offensive numbers are 291 yards passing a game, 147 yards rushing a game for a 437-yard average per game. They average 30.6 points a game which ranks (51st of 134).
They have a 3rd down efficiency of 47%, and a 4th down efficiency of 55%. In the turnover department they have a ratio of -2.
The benching of quarterback Miller Moss is puzzling, as he is at the top of the conference in passing with 2,555 yards for a 64% completion rate with 18 TD’s and 9 INT’s. He has been sacked 10 times. While Maiava is a good passer he has yet to prove he is better than Moss. Maiava started at UNLV last season where he threw 10 interceptions. The thought here is, Riley isn’t happy with his quarterback being sacked 10 times. Maiava can run the ball and his chances of escaping the pocket and running will help spark the offense.
USC’s top rusher is Woody Marks. He has 878 yards rushing for a 5.7-yard average, with 9 TD’s. He also has 37 receptions for 260 yards. He is a dynamic runner and looks to be a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick.
When it comes to receiving, USC has 6 guys with over 20 receptions and 200 yards receiving and 14TD’s. Leading the pack is Makai Lemon, who has 33 catches for 448 yards and 3 TD’s. Zachariah Branch is the second leading receiver with 35 catches for 404 yards. He is also a threat as a kick returner and is a candidate for the Jet award. Finally, there is Ja’Kobi Lane, at 6’4” 195lbs he is the biggest of USC’s receivers. He has 32 catches for 368 yards and, 5 TD’s. Look for Riley to try to match him up against Nebraska’s smaller defensive backs like Malcohm Hertzog.
Tight end Lake McRee at 6’4” 250lbs only has 20 catches for 198 yards. The tight ends typically don’t play a large role in Riley’s offense.
On the defensive side of the ball, defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn is in his first year after serving in the same capacity at cross town rival UCLA. USC’s defense looked improved with Lynn’s initial arrival, especially in tackling. However, in the last couple of games, it appears the Trojans have fallen back into their old ways and gotten sloppy when tackling.
The top 4 tacklers on this team are linebackers. Easton Mascarenas-Arnold, at 6’0” 231lbs he leads the team with 73 total tackles, 41 solo, 2 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles. His counterpart, 6’0” 230lb Mason Cobb is second with 52 total tackles, 21 solo, and 2 interceptions. Both are athletic and very active in Lynn’s defense.
USC’s defense allows 237 yards passing a game and 133 yards rushing a game for a 370.8-yard per game average. They allow 22.2 points a game which ranks (48th of 134). They have 13 sacks, 7 interceptions, and 5 forced fumbles this season. They rank towards the bottom of the conference in sacks.
Placekicker, Michael Lantz is solid, going 35-35 on extra points and 10-15 on filed goals. His longest for the season is 54 yards. He is 4-8 on attempts over 50 yards.
With Holgorsen taking over the play calling at Nebraska USC won’t know what to prepare for. Adjustments by USC’s defensive coordinator after the first quarter will play a big part in winning this game. Riley will also have to push his team to win. They tend to let down when games are close at the end.
Nebraska has a season record of 5-4. Their worst loss, a 56-7 thumping from Indiana. Their best win, Colorado.
Nebraska’s offense averages 230 yards passing a game, 124 yards rushing a game for a 354-yard average. They average 23.6 points a game which ranks them (101st of 134).
They have a 3rd down efficiency of 43.31%, and a 4th down efficiency of 29.41%. In the turnover department they have a ratio of 0.
Quarterback Dylan Raiola has thrown for 1,921 yards for a 64.7% completion rate with 10 TD’s and 8 interceptions. Six of those interceptions have come in the last four games. He has been sacked 21 times.
Leading rusher for the Huskers is Dante Dowdell with 471 yards, for a 4.2 yard average, and 8 TD’s. He also has 5 receptions for 19 yards. It would be fair to say his numbers are low due to a running back by committee approach by coaches.
Nebraska has 5 receivers with over 20 receptions and 200 yards for a total of 8TD’s. Leading the way is 6’4” 220lb Isaiah Neyor, who has 25 catches for 408 yards and 5 TD’s. Jahmal Banks has 27 catches for 360 yards and 2TD’s. True freshman Jacory Barney Jr. has 38 catches for 308 yards. He has also rushed for 119 yards and 3 TD’s.
Look for Holgorsen to try and get 6’6” 255lb tight end Thomas Fidone more involved. For the season he has 28 catches for 289 yards and 0 TD’s. Holgorsen will move Fidone around and use him more as a H-Back.
The top 4 tacklers for the Blackshirts and their safeties and linebackers. The top tackler is Isaac Gifford, with 53 total tackles and 23 solos. After Gifford is 6’3” 210lb DeShon Singleton. He has 50 total tackles and 35 solos. Linebacker John Bullock has 49 total tackles, 23 solo, 3 sacks, 1 INT, and 1 forced fumble. Mikai Gbayor has 39 total tackles, 15 solo, and 1 Sack. The sack leader for Death Row is Ty Robinson with 5 total.
Nebraska’s defense allows 206 yards passing a game and 103 yards rushing a game for a 308-yard per game average. They allow 19.1 points a game which ranks (22nd of 134). They have 25 sacks, 9 interceptions, and 4 forced fumbles on the season. Tony white would tell you all those numbers fall far short of his expectations.
Placekicker, John Hohl has gone 13-14 on extra points or 92.9%, and 4-8 on field goals. His longest for the season is 54 yards. He is 1-3 on attempts over 50 yards.
Importance of hiring Holgorsen now
Many people are saying Matt Rhule made a desperate move by hiring Holgorsen and making him the OC during the season, but Nebraska must become bowl eligible. It’s important it happens in Rhule’s second year. For one, it would give the younger guys 3 to 4 weeks of full practice and another game. And for the guys who are redshirting, they can play in a bowl game without it counting against them. It’s also critical for Holgorsen to be able to fully evaluate the talent on this team and realize the potential for next year.
Rhule’s hiring of Holgorsen may have very well prevented a mass exodus in the transfer portal. It’s a given Raiola and Barney have received calls from other schools. And it’s not hard to imagine either of them leaving if they knew they were going to be stuck another season with Satterfield. Recruiting may benefit from Holgorsen as well, letting recruits see that Matt Rhule and Nebraska are going all in on winning now.
Since the hiring of Holgorsen Nebraska has flipped four-star linebacker Dawson Merrit from Alabama. They are also in contact with Florida State commit, tight end Chase Loftin, who they also have a good chance of flipping. And the Huskers are also still in the race with Texas for 5-star athlete Micheal Terry III.
Now is the time for Nebraska to get that sixth win. I’d love to see them win all three, but for now I’ll just be happy with six. As one Husker fan put it, I don’t care who coaches, who plays, if it’s Air-Raid offense or run the damn ball, “Just Win Baby.”
I think there is more than one Husker fan out there that feels that way right now.
Good things are about to happen.
All stats gathered from ESPN.com
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