After a much needed bye week following a 30-27 loss to Michigan back on September 20th, Matt Rhule and his Huskers feel like they have something to prove and will get that opportunity as they host the Michigan State Spartans this Saturday afternoon.
As is the Huskers, Michigan State is also coming off a bye week after their 45-31 loss to #25 USC, but don’t let the Vegas Sportsbooks fool you, Nebraska may be an 11.5 point favorite but the Spartans actually match up pretty well with the Huskers and should be in this game until late into the fourth quarter.
Spartans head coach Jonathan Smith has his team sitting with a 3-1 record with wins over Western Michigan, Boston College and Youngstown State and they have themselves a star studded quarterback in junior Aidan Chiles.
After transferring in from Oregon State, Chiles had a good 2024 campaign, throwing for 2,415 yards to pair with 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions but through just four games in 2025, Chiles looks like a completely different quarterback.
Chiles has already accounted for 11 total touchdowns this season (16 in 2024) and has seen his completion percentage rise from 59.4% to 68.6%, factor that with just one turnover so far this season from Chiles and the Spartans have themselves a confident and consistent quarterback that will present challenges for the Blackshirt defense.
Chiles will cause this defense problems with his legs, which was an issue for the Huskers against Michigan and Bryce Underwood.
Underwood ran for 61 yards against the Huskers, including a 37 yard touchdown run on a quarterback draw that had Nebraska and defensive coordinator John Butler completely fooled.
Key #1: Stop the run:
Expect the Spartans to lean heavily on their ground attack this Saturday with running backs Makhi Frazier and Brandon Tullis.
Frazier is the leading rusher for the Spartans with 267 yards and two touchdowns on the ground while averaging 4.7 yards per carry, which is just under the 5.1 yards per carry allowed by the Huskers.
Against the Wolverines, the Huskers allowed 286 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns.
Given the projected high winds for this Saturday, if the Huskers can’t stop the Spartans on the ground, it will be a long day at Memorial Stadium.
Key #2: Force the Spartans to throw:
Even with the success that Chiles has had throwing the ball this season, you have to feel good about how the Huskers secondary matches up with the Spartans receivers.
Michigan is the only team so far this season to throw for over 100 yards on the Huskers, ranking Nebraska #1 in the country in pass defense, allowing just 75.8 yards per game with a total of 303 passing yards given up all season.
It all starts with the veterans in that Husker secondary, Andrew Marshall and Ceyair Wright have both been lockdown corners for the Huskers this season, but with senior defensive back Malcolm Hartzog Jr. listed as doubtful for Saturday, expect sophomore Donovan Jones to fill in his spot.
Spartans wide receivers Omari Kelly and Nick Marsh have combined for 39 of Chile’s 70 completions this season.
Key #3: Establish a running game:
Nebraska may have one of the top running backs in the conference in Emmett Johnson, but what they don’t have is a backup running back that they trust while Johnson is on the sidelines.
Out of the 579 yards the Huskers have rushed for this season, Johnson has accounted for 391 of them and the Huskers second leading rusher in Kwinten Ives hasn’t seen the field since the Houston Christian game.
The Spartans defense allows 120.5 rushing yards per game which ranks 47th in the country, allowing 4.2 yards per carry, Johnson himself averages 5.5 per carry.
Prediction:
High temperatures and high winds are in the forecast for this Saturday, so there is a good chance that both teams get back to playing “old school” big ten football and chew the clock with run heavy drives.
One thing has to be said, Nebraska is very salty about how things ended against the Wolverines two weeks ago and they have had to live with that feeling throughout the bye week.
I expect this game to be a lot closer than the media and sportsbooks think, the Spartans have been tested and Jonathan Smith will have his team ready to play a full 60 minutes or more.
If the Huskers can get some stops early in the run game and force Chiles into third and long situations, I have a lot of trust in the Huskers secondary and pass rush to disrupt the Spartans.
If the Huskers can’t stop the run and give up close to 6 yards per carry consistently as the day goes on? I have a very hard time believing that they will win this game.
Nebraska: 28 Michigan State: 20