The Nebraska vs USC game is just one of the many elimination games that will be played on Saturday. Both teams come into the game with 2 losses, and it’s very unlikely a team with 3 losses will qualify for the CFP. At this point, it’s questionable that the Big Ten will get more than three teams into the twelve-team pool. After Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon, there isn’t anyone who has separated themselves.
Currently, it’s crowded for the number four spot, with Washington, Iowa, Michigan, USC, and Nebraska all looking to win out and claim the coveted spot. By the end of the season someone will have made the cut.
I said earlier that USC will be the best team Nebraska has faced all season. That hasn’t changed. QB Jayden Maiava leads the top-ranked passing offense in college football with an average of 326.1 yards per game. He also leads the nation in yards per completion (10.2). It leads to USC being the number one ranked offense in college football with an average of 530 yards per game and 5th in the nation in scoring offense with 42.4 points per game. That number has come down in Big Ten play but is still impressive as USC has scored 31 points in six of its last seven games. They are also productive on 3rd down 53.0% conversion rate and 4th down, 71.4% conversion rate.
Against USC, the Blackshirts will be facing a top tier QB and NFL caliber receivers. Those players are:
QB Jayden Maiava, 6’4” 230lbs, 2,180 yards passing, 15 TDs and 4 INTs. Maiava has only been sacked 5 times during the season.
WR Makai Lemon, 5’11” 195lbs, 48 receptions for 758 yards, 15.8 yards per catch, and 6 TDs.
WR Ja’Kobi Lane, 6’4” 200lbs, 24 receptions for 424 yards, 17.2 yards per catch and 3 TDs.
TE Lake McRee, 6’4” 250lbs, 16 receptions for 307 yards, 19.2 yards per catch and 2 TDs.
McRee will be someone the Blackshirts need to be aware of. He doesn’t catch a lot of balls but averaging almost 20 yards a reception he could be dangerous.
If the Trojans have any shortcomings on offense, it’s their sporadic running game. Part of that is due to injuries. The Trojans will start 3rd string RB King Miller, 6’0” 210lbs. On the season King has 47 carries for 380 yards, an 8.1 yard per carry average, and 3 TDs. As a team the Trojans average 203.9 yards rushing per game, but a statistic to be aware of is that when the Trojans rush for 4 yards per carry or less they lose. It’s part of why HC Lincoln Riley tends to abandon the running game too early if it doesn’t appear to be working.
It will be interesting to see how Nebraska plays defense against USC. Obviously, they will want to stop the running game and make USC play to their defensive strength. The Huskers have one of the best secondaries in the nation, allowing 127.4 yards per game passing, which is the 2nd best in the country. Nebraska’s defense has struggled to stop the run but is one of the few FBS teams that has not allowed 400 total yards of offense this season. Overall, the Blackshirts rank 12th in the nation giving up 284 yards per game and are 31st in scoring defense, allowing 19.6 points per game.
The question is, how do the Blackshirts approach this game. We saw at the end of the Northwestern game DC John Butler brought pressure and had some success. Will he try that against USC or will the Blackshirts drop back and attempt to cover. Defensively, Nebraska has struggled to put pressure on the QB, and the numbers tell us it won’t be easy against the Trojans. Nebraska has only produced a total of 12 sacks and USC’s offensive line has only given up 6 on the season. The old saying, “Live by the blitz, die by the blitz,” may come into play. We know Butler became gun shy against Minnesota, that can’t happen against USC, because it’s a given with the Trojans wide receiver talent that they will have more than one explosive play. I also look for Lincoln Riley to target Ceyair Wright and challenge him, one because no one has this season, and two because Riley possesses a level of arrogance.
On the season the Blackshirts have logged 44 tackles for a loss, 12 sacks, 5 interceptions, 4 forced fumbles and 6 fumble recoveries. It’ll be key for them to make game changing plays and create turnovers against the Trojans. Last season against his old team Ceyair Wright had a pick six. If Riley does take a shot at Wright, he better be prepared for the consequences.
Offensively the Huskers have been inconsistent. To have any success in this game they will need to find the same running game they had against Northwestern. Emmett Johnson had 124 yards on 27 carries and 2 TDs. There have been concerns about how many times Johnson touches the ball, but Holgorsen will need to throw that out the window. If Johnson needs to see the ball 30 times in this game, so be it, because Matt Rhule is 6-1 when one of his RBs rush for 100 yards or more.
A running game will help keep Raiola out of trouble. Against Northwestern he had his second lowest number of attempts in a game, but he may have put together the best drive he’s had all season. Between a strong running game and quick passes, it will slow USC’s pass rush down. On the season USC’s defense has 50 tackles for losses, 21 sacks, 9 interceptions, 6 forced fumbles, and 3 fumble recoveries. USC is aware the Huskers have given up 26 sacks this season and will bring pressure. Defensive players to watch are:
Leading tackler LB Eric Gentry, 6’6” 255lbs, 48 total tackles, 39 solo tackles, 3 sacks, and 7 tackles for losses.
Safety Bishop Fitzgerald, 5’11” 205lbs, 40 total tackles, 1 sack, 5 interceptions, and 1 TD. Bishop will be someone Raiola will need to be aware of every time he drops back.
USC will try to get pressure on Raiola off the edges, that will come from DEs Kameryn Crawford, 6’5” 265lbs, and DE Braylan Shelby, 6’5” 265lbs. Between the pair they have 12 tackles for losses, 7 sacks and 1 interception.
A critical portion of the game will be Nebraska’s ability to score when in the red zone. The Huskers have struggled all season in the red zone and USC is 2nd nationally in redzone defense. Staying away from 3rd and 4th downs would be a good start. On 3rd down Nebraska converts 45.6% of the time, on 4th down 40.0% of the time.
This one comes down to Nebraska slowing USC’s offense down and staying close in score. But the real wild card, Mike Ekeler’s special teams. Five names who will make a difference in this game, Kevin Gallic, Kyle Cunanan, Archie Wilson, Jacory Barney, and Kenneth Williams. Whether it’s a long field goal, a deep punt that results in a safety, a punt return for a score or a kick return for a score, it’ll be a special teams score that will be the difference if Nebraska wins this game.
Two other stats to know, the Trojans are 2-6 on the road since joining the Big Ten and they have 80 more yards in penalties than Nebraska on the season. A win by Nebraska would be the biggest of Matt Rhule’s coaching career since arriving.
GO BIG RED!!
Photo courtesy of The Falls City Journal
Stats gathered from ESPN – Serving Sports Fans. Anytime. Anywhere.
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