I said last week that the numbers said USC would get a win over Nebraska. I also said the numbers sometimes lie. Well, they didn’t. USC won a one score game. But it wasn’t as if Nebraska didn’t have their chances. They did. The ball bounced Nebraska’s way several times, and there were plays to be made by Nebraska that would have turned the game. But as coach Matt Rhule as often said this season, “Players have to make plays.”
The Wisconsin game will be no different. Nebraska’s players are going to have to step up and make plays. The numbers this week say these two teams are evenly matched. And not only do the numbers say that, but the circumstances of both teams couldn’t be more similar.
Both head coaches are in their second year at their respective schools. Both teams have a record of 5-5. Both teams have fired their offensive coordinators within the last two weeks. Both teams represent fan bases that have high expectations and are disappointed in what they’ve seen this year. Both teams are playing to become bowl eligible. Both schools need a win because their fans are restless and are on the verge of walking away at a time when their financial support is needed. A loss in this game will make things ugly for one of these teams.
So, what do the numbers say? I’ll let you be the judge.
Wisconsin on Offense
Wisconsin Offense, points per game 23.9. Rank – 97 of 134
Nebraska Defense, points allowed per game, 20.0. Rank – 26 of 134
Wisconsin’s Offense, 193.9 yards passing per game, 10 TD’s. 169.3 yards rushing per game, 19 TD’s, for an average total of 363.1 yards a game.
Nebraska’s Defense, 210.9 yards passing allowed, 110.5 yards rushing. Average total per game, 321.4 yards.
Wisconsin Offense, 3rd down efficiency, 37.8%. 4th down efficiency 64.71%
Wisconsin’s Offense allowed 11 sacks and threw 9 interceptions, turnover ratio -5.
Nebraska’s Defense has 26 sacks, 10 interceptions, 5 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries.
Nebraska on Offense
Nebraska Offense, points per game 23.2. Rank- 100 of 134
Wisconsin Defense, points allowed per game, 20.9. Rank – 33 of 134
Nebraska’s Offense, 225.4 yards passing per game, 11 TD’s. 124.3 yards rushing per game, 15 TD’s, for 349.7-yard average per game.
Wisconsin’s Defense, 164.8 yards passing allowed, 161.7 yards rushing. Average total per game, 326.5 yards
Nebraska’s Offense, 3rd down efficiency, 42.86%. 4th down efficiency 33.33%
Nebraska’s Offense allowed 23 sacks and threw 11 interceptions, turnover ratio +2.
Wisconsin’s Defense has 16 sacks, 4 interceptions, 3 forced fumbles, 7 fumble recoveries.
Players to Watch – Wisconsin
Wisconsin QB Braedyn Locke, 129/234, 1514 yards, 55.1%, 9 TD’s, 9 INT’s. Wisconsin lost starting OB Tyler Van Dyke to injury mid-season. Backup Locke has started since and has thrown an interception in every game he’s started. Locke also isn’t a running threat.
Wisconsin RB Tawee Walker is the leading rusher, at 5’9” 218lbs he’s rushed for 773 yards on 162 carries for a 4.8-yard average and 10 TD’s. Wisconsin has 3 other RB’s with over 200 yards rushing. Wisconsin ranks 6th in the B1G in rushing. Look for them to test Nebraska’s run defense after seeing USC’s counter running game. If they can make Nebraska’s safeties come up, they’ll try to take advantage with deep throws.
Wisconsin WR’s are, Vinny Anthony II, he has 28 catches for 496 yards and 2 TD’s. Will Pauling was a thorn in Nebraska’s side last season, he has 42 catches for 407 yards and 3 TD’s. He’s been injured throughout the season and may see limited time against Nebraska. The biggest receiver with playing time is 6’3” 213lbs Bryson Green, he has 13 catches for 167 yards. I mention him because it has become a trend for opponents to match their biggest receiver against Nebraska’s Malcolm Hartzog.
Wisconsin’s tight ends have seen limited action this season with a total of 23 receptions in 10 games. Unless the change in offensive coordinators shakes things up, don’t look for that to change against Nebraska.
Wisconsin’s Kicker is Nathanial Vakos, he’s 28/28 on extra points and 11/15 on field goals. His longest on the season is 53 yards. He’s 8/12 on kicks over 30 yards.
Wisconsin leading tacklers are safety, Hunter Wohler with (63), linebacker Jaheim Thomas with (52), and linebacker Jake Chaney with (51). Hunter is the leader of this defense. He was injured in the last game and could be in concussion protocol. He will be a game time decision.
Wisconsin’s sack leader is linebacker Christian Alliegro with (3).
Players to Watch – Nebraska
Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola, 203/310 for 2,112 yards, 65.5%, 11TD’s and 10 NT’s. Raiola played his best ball in the first 4 games of the season but has regressed as the seasons gone on. He looked better against USC with Holgorsen on the headset and calling the plays. He looked comfortable with an increased pace of play and seemed to find a rhythm. I anticipate further improvement with another week of working with Holgorsen.
Running Back Dante Dowdell, 120 for 523 yards, and 8TD’s. Dowdell has shown flashes of the running back this offense needs. Hopefully Holgorsen realizes more touches will only improve both Dowdell and Nebraska’s running game. Emmett Johnson, 68 for 339 yards, 1 TD. Johnson has 23 receptions for 152 yards, and 1 TD. Emmett Johnson is the most versatile back on Nebraska’s roster, and he too has shown flashes of brilliance when on the field.
Nebraska’s top three wide receivers are, Isaiah Neyor, 28 catches for 426 yards, and 5 TD’s. Jahmal Banks, 32 catches for 415 yards and 2 TD’s. Jacory Barney Jr. 40 catches for 317 yards. Barney has also rushed 9 times for 119 yards and 3 TD’s. In my opinion Banks and Neyor have underperformed this season while Barney has been everything anticipated and more. Look for Jalen Lloyd to get more targets against Wisconsin.
Thomas Fidone leads tight ends in yards and catches. However, we saw more rotation last week at USC. I anticipate we’ll see more of the same against Wisconsin.
Kicker John Hohl has improved as the season has gone on. He is 15/16 on extra points and 6/10 on field goals. His longest this season was 54 yards. He is 4/8 on attempts over 30 yards.
On defense leading tacklers are safety Isaac Gifford with (59), linebacker John Bullock with (56) and safety DeShon Singleton with (56). Bullock is the backbone and leader of this defense. He will need to have a good game and help shut down Wisconsin’s running game for the Husker’s to have a chance in this one.
Nebraska’s sack leader is defensive lineman Ty Robinson with (6).
Assessment
While both teams are looking to become bowl eligible, it feels like Nebraska has more to play for. The game is at home and its senior day. There are approximately 30 players who will make the senior walk on Saturday. These are fifth-and-sixth-year guys who have never played in a bowl game. They have a lot to prove. A portion of the 30 may be walking due to being roster casualties. With roster limits dropping to 105, it is the end of an era for Nebraska football with the walk-on program. It’s not to say there will never be walk-ons again, but with the numbers race, it will become extremely rare.
The Freedom Trophy is also on the line, but few if any Huskers could tell you what it looks like since Nebraska hasn’t beaten Wisconsin since 2012. It’s a drought Husker fans want to see come to an end.
This game will come down to Nebraska’s offense against Wisconsin’s defense. But truthfully, this Wisconsin team is beatable, and if you’re a Husker fan you know there has never been a better time for Nebraska to win. This is the game. It must happen now. There is a reason Matt Rhule said in his press conference Monday that this is the most important game of his coaching career. He isn’t blowing smoke. He’s right. He’s been a part of bigger games but never has he had this much on the line as a head coach and he knows it.
I keep saying this Nebraska team is going to win, and I can’t stop now. After seeing an improvement in Raiola last week, I think another week with Holgorsen makes the difference. I think Nebraska will win on Saturday and fans will storm the field. That sounds crazy for simply getting a sixth win, but this game is pivotal at a time when Nebraska football desperately needs a win.
All stats gathered from ESPN.com
Go to Off The Cob to read my article ‘Holgorsen has Nebraska on the Move’.
