Nebraska squares off against Illinois this Friday on national television in Memorial Stadium for the Huskers 400th sellout. Nebraska, an 8.5 point favorite this game out mans Illinois in almost every, if not every single aspect of the game. The key will be to see if the Huskers can clean up the penalties and play four quarters. Nebraska has depth and is rotating players like I have yet to see in my lifetime, getting young players valuable experience in the non-conference games, but that may not stop this week. We know Nebraska will be bigger, faster and stronger than the Bielema coached Illini. So let’s take a look at the numbers and see how this game will play out.
Illinois on offense has played some weak defensive opponents. Their marquee win is against a Kansas team who dropped a game last week to UNLV. UNLV may be good but that is in part to their surfresh Tebow like quarterback Matthew Sluka, Sluka a transfer from Holy Cross that was on my watchlist to land as an experienced back-up on the Huskers roster early this past spring. The defenses of the Illini’s opponents have been nothing compared to the Buzzsaw they will be stepping into this Friday, the Blackshirts. QB Luke Altmyer is seemingly holding this team together with consistency, throwing for 647 yards while completing 69.2 percent of his passes and accumulating no interceptions. The consistency may continue but will not be as productive this week as Illinois averages just over 12 yards per completion. They like to emulate Nebraska as far as short checkdown passes and utilizing the run game to open up the big plays but short passes is what Nebraska’s Defense covers very well. Combining team speed and a fly to the ball mentality, Nebraska will continue to shrink the opponents yards after the catch this week in a loud memorial stadium. As they attempt to go deep they will have to deal with the aggressive blackshirt pass rush. Expect Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer to throw at least one interception in this contest.
The Illinois run game is always a staple under Bielema even though it hasn’t seemed to catch on yet this year. Nebraska’s Defense is giving up only 70 yards per game while Illinois is rushing for just over 153 yards per game. I do not see the Illini going over 150 yards in Friday’s game, throwing off their flow and halting many drives. The bootleg is one thing I do worry about with Altmeyer having 14 rushing attempts on the year and Nebraska over pursuing last week against Northern Iowa. However in those 14 attempts this year the Illini quarterback only averaged 2.6 yards per carry. The Blackshirt rush defense should remain stout in its first B1G test of the year.
On offense the Raiola led Huskers are averaging 250 yards through the air in the first three games of the season, while Illinois is only allowing on average 150 yards passing per game and holding opponents to just over a 50 percent completion rate. This will prove to be a test for Raiola and the receiving core as well as an offensive line that will get Mazzccua back this week if needed. The sacks should not be a problem as the Huskers have done a great job of protecting Raiola so far this year while Illinois is averaging less than two sacks per game. The Illinois secondary however seems to be well versed in takeaways. If Raiola can protect the ball and keep the Illini from packing the box, with occasional deep shots the Huskers could have an outstanding game. This is however the perfect storm to test Raiola’s ball placement and resilience as the Illinois pass defense will be the best he will face until Ohio State.
The Huskers rushing offense meets an Illini defense that is only giving up 123 yards rushing per game. They have not faced backs of the caliber that Nebraska has yet, but are showing that they can stop the run. This game will come down to who can protect the ball and who can run the football. As long as the Huskers freshman quarterback does not have a dreaded freshman moment filled game Nebraska should control both categories. Taking into account the match-ups and numbers, I do see this being a close game in the first half. If Nebraska can prove to play four quarters, which they havent had to do yet this year, Nebraska wins by 17-21 points. This is a game where we find out if Nebraska is a contender or pretender in the Big Ten this year.
