I wrote before the season started that there were five games the Huskers had to win to have the season the fans and the Huskers wanted. The games, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Maryland, Minnesota, and Northwestern. My thought was that Akron and Houston Christian were sure wins. Two plus the five would be seven, with Michigan, USC, UCLA, Penn State and Iowa left on the schedule. Even if the Huskers went 2-3 in those last five games that would’ve put them at 9-3 on the season. What is the old saying, “Don’t count you chickens before they hatch.”
The Minnesota loss isn’t the end of the world, but with already losing to Michigan, to even get to 8-4 the Huskers would have to go 3-2 over the remaining 5. The way they have been playing, that sounds like a tall order. Husker fans would be okay with 8-4 but it doesn’t really live up to the Matt Rhule year three hype that was expected. Therefore, I have no problem saying the Northwestern game is a must-win.
But make no mistake, Northwestern can be dangerous, just ask both DeShaun Foster and James Franklin. The last time both coaches stood on the sideline this season was against Northwestern. UCLA’s and Penn State’s fortunes turned after playing the Wildcats. While Matt Rhule isn’t going to be fired, a loss could have the same season turning misfortune for the Huskers. The outcome of this game is vital to both schools. One team becomes bowl eligible with their sixth win and picks up momentum for their next opponent. Both teams play USC in their next game.
Since I referenced a fable earlier, Northwestern versus Nebraska offensively is another one. This game could very well be, “The Tortoise and the Hare.” Northwestern is slow paced, steady, and methodical while Nebraska at times can be explosive, erratic, and overconfident. Unfortunately, we all know how that fable ended. One thing the Huskers can’t do is let Northwestern put together double-digit drives, control the clock, and put points on the board and that is exactly what the Wildcats will try to do. They run the ball well, emphasize defense, and play smashmouth football.
Offensively, the heart of the Cats offense is the running backs and the offensive line. They are excellent at running the football with an average of 186.6 rushing yards per game, which ranks 38th in the nation. The Wildcats rank 89th in total offense at 364.4 yards per game and 99th in scoring offense at 22.7 points per game.
The offense runs through QB Preston Stone 6’1” 215lbs, who has passed for 1,213 yards, 10 TDs, and 7 INTs. Stone is solid and has a big arm and thrives on the play action. However, if pressured he tends to forget his mechanics and make poor throws. The Huskers will need to put pressure on Stone.
Northwestern has a dual threat at running back in Caleb Komolafe 5’11” 210lbs, and Joesph Himon II 5’9” 190lbs. Komolafe is the workhorse, pounding the ball, content to pick up 3 to 5 yards until breaking something longer. Himon is the break-away back and a threat receiving out of the back field.
WR Griffin Wilde 6’2” 200lbs is Stone’s clearcut favorite receiver and safety blanket. Wilde has 36 receptions for 516 yards and 4 TDs. He is someone Nebraska’s DBs will need to blanket. It all boils down to Northwestern, being a better version of Minnesota with a game plan patterned after Iowa. Things not conducive to Nebraska having success.
As for Nebraska, seven games into the season it would be difficult to say they have established an offensive identity. Like the ‘Hare’, they have been explosive at times. They ran the ball well against Maryland, 193 yards with a 9.0 yard per carry average, but looked inept against Minnesota, 36 yards with a 1.2 yard per carry average after sacks. And even though they have a former five-star QB and one of the better receiving corps in the Big Ten, you can hardly call them a threat in the passing game after giving up 25 sacks on the season.
Because of that one of Northwestern’s goals will be to pressure Raiola. It’s a copycat game and people have seen what teams have done to the Huskers, there is blood in the water. The Cats have registered 28 TFLs, and 11 sacks on the season. While those numbers don’t sound great, remember Minnesota didn’t have a single sack in the two games prior to putting 9 on the Huskers. The Northwestern defense ranks 21st in the nation, surrendering 305.03 yards per game and 11th in the country in scoring defense at 15.14 points allowed per game. They are especially good in the red zone. Leaders on defense are LB Mac Uihlein 6’0” 230lbs and safety Robert Fitzgerald 6’0” 210lbs. Uihlein has more than 50 tackles, 5 TFLs, 3 INTs and 1 FF. Fitzgerald has 60 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, and 1 FR.
Monday Matt Rhule said the Blackshirts were too ‘vanilla’ against Minnesota. In his press conference this week DC John Butler admitted he got spooked after Minnesota’s 71-yard run. And that while he wasn’t a sheep, we sometimes do sheep like things. He unfortunately didn’t react correctly after getting punched in the mouth. While surprised, it’s understandable after what Michigan did to the Huskers. Fans don’t want to hear things like that from their DC, but I appreciate the honesty and his taking responsibility. It also sounded like it was a learning experience that he won’t let happen again.
One concern for the Blackshirts may be injuries. Rhule shared Thursday that Malcohm Hartzog had surgery on his groin and would be taking a redshirt. I said before the season I thought Hartzog and Buford would see limited playing time due to the talent of some of the young guys. While Hartzog has been out with the injury, Marques Buford has struggled to get on the field. We are seeing young guys like Rex Guthrie get several snaps. In fact, Guthrie is currently the third leading tackler on the team and was awarded a Blackshirt this week.
But the guy the Blackshirts really missed against Minesota was LB Vincent Shavers Jr. who has 26 tackles, 5 TFLs, and 1 FF on the season. Shavers is one of the better players on the team at closing the gap. If he is out for the Northwestern game Marques Watson-Trent will fill in. Watson-Trent is a good linebacker, but he’s not V9, few guys are.
Look for a different Husker team against Northwestern. I anticipate the Blackshirts will try to get to the quarterback and wreak havoc on the Wildcats. Offensively, Holgorsen and Donavan Raiola were embarrassed at Minnesota and won’t let it happen again. What that looks like, I’m not sure, but I’m guessing it will resemble Maryland more than Minnesota.
Special teams play a big role in this one.
GO BIG RED!!
Photo courtesy of The Falls City Journal
Stats gathered from ESPN – Serving Sports Fans. Anytime. Anywhere.
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