It’s Michigan week. Let the clichés begin. How about I start with, “This game will be won in the trenches.” Or maybe, “It all starts up front with the big uglies.” Perhaps you like former Nebraska coach Bill Busch’s saying better, “Mass kicks ass.”
It really doesn’t matter how you say it or how technical and pretty you try to make it sound, it still comes down to being a game of “Mano a Mano.” And to say line play will be the single biggest factor in Nebraska winning this game may be inaccurate. There is much more involved in Nebraska beating Michigan than the BAMBOOU Pipeline or the Blackshirt front.
This is a big game that is getting national attention. It’s a helmet game. It’s Matt Rhule’s year three and Michigan HC Sherrone Moore is out due to suspension. And while the game is big for both teams, there is more pressure on Michigan. They’ve already dropped a game to Oklahoma, and a second loss would have CFP implications. A loss also brings further attention to Moore’s 1-3 record when on the road. Had the lone win not been against Ohio State it would already be a topic. Nebraska is 3-0 with high expectations. A win here validates the thought that Nebraska really has turned things around. And while a loss hurts, it doesn’t jeopardize Nebraska’s goal of reaching nine to ten wins.
So, if this game doesn’t revolve solely around line play, what does it depend on?
Head Space
For Nebraska this is a game that requires confidence and the belief they can win. The Huskers have lost 28 straight games to ranked opponents since 2016. As a head coach, Matt Rhule is 2-22 against Top 25 teams. There is also a narrative out there that Michigan is more physical than Nebraska. The Huskers need to change that and come into this game with bad intentions. Former DC Charlie McBride used to say football is 80% emotion, 20% technique, the great teams play with controlled rage. In other words, Nebraska needs to come into this game with the mental fortitude and tenacity of a pit bull.
The question for Michigan is, how big is Sherrone Moore’s absence. In speaking to the team before leaving it was reported as an emotional moment. Moore doesn’t want this game to be about him, but interim HC Biff Poggi will try to do just that. He’ll use that raw emotion to his advantage. The thought is it could be a problem, but don’t forget that Michigan is only two years away from winning a national championship. There are players on this team like former Husker Ernest Hausmann who have experienced big games. And let’s face it, even if they aren’t that 2023 team, Michigan is still Michigan.
Matt Rhule and boxing champ Bud Crawford have formed an alliance and are on a mission to support one another and promote the state of Nebraska. With Crawford’s recent win and national attention while showcasing all the Husker gear, Rhule has used him as a shining example of what being the underdog is all about and what it takes to be a winner. If Rhule can get Bud to talk to the team before the game and lead them out of the tunnel it would jack Memorial Stadium up to an all-time high. However, what this team can’t do is make the game bigger than it is or let their emotions get away from them.
Quarterback Play
Most weeks I find myself concentrating on the quarterbacks, and why wouldn’t I with the QBs being Dylan Raiola and Bryce Underwood. Both were five-star prospects coming out of high school and highly recruited. It was a big coup for Nebraska to get Raiola from Georgia, just as it was for Michigan to keep Underwood at home rather than going to LSU. But the real test here will be each QBs ability to live and adapt when their offensive line gets beat. And believe me, in this game it’ll happen to both offensive lines. Turning a broken play into a winning play could very well be the difference in this game. Whether it’s Underwood scrambling twenty yards for a first down or Raiola dumping it off to a safety valve over the middle, the ability to improvise will be a big part of this game.
Adding to the intrigue, both QBs are young, and both are facing former NFL defensive coordinators. Raiola in Wink Martindale and Underwood in John Butler. Martindale is known for his exotic blitz packages. Butler’s forte is giving false reads and confusing looks in coverage. It’s imperative for the young QBs to protect the ball. As far as recognizing what plays to check down to, Raiola may have a slight advantage due to an additional year of experience. Either way, there are numbers to support both guys.
Dylan Raiola: Passing, 72/94, 829 yards, 76.6% completion rate, 8 TDs, 0 INTs. Rushing, 9 carries 19 yards, 2.1-yard AVG, 0 TDs.
Bryce Underwood; Passing, 46/80, 628 yards, 57.5 completion rate, 2 TDs, 1 INT. Rushing, 14 carries 108 yards, 7.7-yard AVG, 2 TDs.
Supporting Cast
With the young QBs, a supporting cast will be vital, not just in the offensive line but in the skill players as well.
For Dylan Raiola that starts with Emmett Johnson, who is a dual threat at both running and caching the ball. He is also the best running back at pass protection. Look for him to get anywhere from 20 to 25 touches. His numbers: 52/326 yards, 4 TDs. Receptions 11/41 yards, 1 TD.
Raiola has also distributed the ball well to his receivers, at this point in the season it would be hard to list his favorite. There are five guys with over 100 yards receiving, starting with WRs Dane Key 12/190 yards, 3 TDs, Jacory Barney Jr. 15/181 yards, 1 TD, Nyziah Hunter 11/ 163 yards, 1 TD, Cortez Mills Jr. 5/118 yards 1 TD, and TE Luke Lindenmeyer 9/100 yards 1 TD. Look for OC Dana Holgorsen to reveal some new formations and routes that the Wolverine’s haven’t seen on film.
Defensively Nebraska’s top five tacklers are all defensive backs. I’m not sure how to decipher that. Is it due to being aggressive and playing run support or is it because runners are getting to the second level. Rovers Rex Guthrie and DeShohn Singleton are tied for the lead with 12 tackles apiece.
For Bryce Underwood and Michigan, it starts with RB Justin Haynes who is a break way threat every time he touches the ball. His numbers: 7.9 yards per carry. 16 touches per contest. 5 TDs. 75-yard run against Oklahoma. 6 to 7 runs over 20 yards this season.
Michigan has four clear cut receivers. They are WRs Donavan McCulley 10/158 yards, Semaj Morgan 9/121 yards, 1TD, Channing Goodwin 6/107 yards, and TE Marlin Klien 7/101 yards, 1 TD.
Defensively Michigan’s top three tacklers are all linebackers, Ernest Hausmann is the leading tackler with 9 solos, and 11 assists for a total of 20.
Keys to the Game & Things to be Aware of
If the Huskers are to win this game, there are key things they need to happen and numbers they need to hit. In my ‘Ten Best Games of Week 4’ I said Nebraska wins 27-24. However, I’ll go a step further and say regardless of what happens, if Nebraska scores 30 points they win this game.
Nebraska must win on first down, both on offense and defense. They cannot put themselves in long 2nd and 3rd downs. And with Michigan’s running game, the Blackshirts can’t allow 3rd and short conversions.
Nebraska’s offense needs to put together long drives and control the ball. They also need to get an early lead and force Michigan to play from behind.
Nebraska must win the field position battle. Archie Wilson needs to be “a damn weapon,” like STC Mike Ekeler suggested.
Nebraska must win the turnover battle. In games like this, a turnover can cost you the game.
Nebraska’s Blackshirts must contain Bryce Underwood making him one dimensional and forcing him to throw the ball.
Nebraska’s linebackers must be allowed to play freely and fill running lanes. They can’t get caught up in the garbage. Players to watch, Javin wright, Vincent Shavers Jr., and Desean McCullough.
With Michigan’s running game DeShon Singleton will need to be a difference maker in run support.
Nebraska’s running backs and tight ends need to show up. Emmett Johnson, Mekhi Nelson, Luke Lindenmeyer and Heinrich Haarberg will be key as outlets when Raiola is blitzed, and his pass blocking breaks down.
Through three games Nebraska’s secondary has been highly touted.
Nebraska’s pass defense: Comp% 50%, yards per pass-6 yards. Per game 66 yards. Interceptions-1.
Run defense: yards per attempt, 4.04. Yards allowed per game 136. Forced fumbles-3.
Numbers can sometimes be deceiving, are Nebraska’s pass defense numbers good because of secondary play or are they good because the Blackshirts are easier to run on? And how proficient were the passing games of the first three opponents? Those answers may come as Michigan is the best team the Blackshirts have faced thus far.
This game is Matt Rhule’s biggest since arriving in Nebraska. National media is talking it up and CBS has made it a priority. It’s a great opportunity for Nebraska to get a win against a blueblood team in front of a nationwide audience. Games like these are few and far between, and Nebraska hasn’t had a game at home of this magnitude in years. It’s one they need the win.
GO BIG RED!!
Stats gathered from ESPN – Serving Sports Fans. Anytime. Anywhere.
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