It was a little easier to find ten good games this week, although I struggled with number ten. I decided on Washington vs Washington State over West Virgina vs Kansas. This week there are games that will affect conference races and poll rankings. My top three games are Texas Tech vs Utah, Michigan vs Nebraska, and Illinois vs Indiana. The winner of Tech and Utah will have an inside to winning the Big XII. The winners of the Michigan vs Nebraska and the Illinois vs Indiana games will move up in the polls and stay alive in the Big Ten. We’ve reached that point in the season when teams need to start hitting their stride for the conference chase.
Saturday September 20th
17Texas Tech 3-0 vs 16Utah 3-0
ESPN2 11:00am
Last season Ohio State reportedly spent $20 million on their roster and won the national championship. The rumor this season is that Texas Tech has exceeded that dollar amount. Will it yield the same results? Tech’s offense has been prolific, averaging 602 yards and 58 points per game. The Red Raiders are led by QB Behren Morton who has thrown for 923 yards, 11 TDs and 1 INT. The defense isn’t far behind, only allowing 231 yards and 12 points per game. If the Raiders have a weakness its penalties, 24 in three games for 200 yards. Utah’s offense averages 45.7 points per game while their defense allows 8.3. They are led by New Mexico transfer QB Devon Dampier whose thrown for 628 yards, 7 TDs and 0 INTs. He’s also rushed for 198 yards and 1 TD. These are two of the better teams in the Big XII and this will be the first meeting between the two teams in 50 years and the first time Tech has played at Rice-Eccles Stadium. The Utes can be tough on their home turf. Joey McGuire’s record as a HC is 26-16. Utah HC Kyle Whittingham is in his 21st season and has a record of 170-86. You might be able to buy roster talent, but nothing can replace experience.
OTC pick: Utah 31-28
21Michigan 2-1 vs Nebraska 3-0
CBS 2:30pm
This one has all the elements of a great game. It’s a helmet game, both teams come in emotionally charged, the Wolverines are without HC Sherrone Moore while the Huskers are looking to make a statement win at home against a Big Ten opponent. Each team’s strength matches up against the other team’s weakness. Nebraska’s strength is their passing offense. While their run defense may be questionable. Michigan has a strong running game. If they have a weakness on defense, it’s their secondary. Both teams are led by talented QBs in Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola and Michigan’s Bryce Underwood. Raiola may have a slight edge with a year under his belt. Michigan has a homerun threat at running back in Justice Haynes who averages 7.9 yards per carry and has over 6 runs of twenty yards plus with 5 TDs on the season. Nebraska’s RB Emmett Johnson is no slouch, rushing for 326 yards with a 6.3-yard average and 3 TDs. He’s also caught 11 balls for 43 yards and a TD. Nebraska has a better receiving group with five players having over 100 yards receiving and 3 of those having over 150 yards with 7 TDs. When it comes right down to it the difference in this one might very well be Nebraska’s special teams. Between punter Archie Wilson, kicker Kyle Cunanan, and punt returner Jacory Barney, one of them may very well produce the winning score.
OTC pick: Nebraska 27-24
9Illinois 3-0 vs 19Indiana 3-0
NBC 6:30pm
For only the second time since 1950 do these two teams face each other as ranked opponents. Indiana’s 3-0 record is questionable with wins over Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, and Indiana State. Indiana has a strong running game with Kaelon Black, Lee Beebe Jr, and Roman Hemby all rushing for over 200 yards on the season. Fernando Mendoza has chipped in 72 yards and 2 TDs rushing while passing for 708 yards, 9 TDs and 0 INTs. His top two receivers are Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Starrett. The pair has a combined 28 catches for 463 yards and 7 TDs. Illinois HC Brett Bielema is in his 12th season in the Big Ten. He’s put together his own impressive team in QB Luke Altmeyer, 708 yards passing, 8 TDs and 0 INTs. Receiver Hank Beatty, 289 yards and 1 TD and RB Keden Feagin who rushed for 222 yards and 3 TDs. Beatty is also a threat as a return man, breaking legend Red Grange’s school record for punt return yardage in a game. The Illini also plays good defense with LBs Malachi Hood and Gabe Jacas leading a group that only gives up 74 yards rushing per game. Cignetti can toot his own horn, but Bielema has been around the block and would love nothing more than going to Bloomington and putting ‘Google Me’ in his place.
OTC pick: Illinois 27-20
Due to time constraints, moving forward I’ll dive into my top three games with detail, but I’ll just skim over the remaining seven games.
22Auburn 3-0 vs 11Oklahoma 3-0
ABC 2:30pm
QB Jackson Arnold returns to Oklahoma hoping to show his old team they made a mistake. It won’t happen. He’ll go back to Auburn feeling worse after watching his replacement John Mateer dismantle the Tigers. Brent Venables is a defensive coach and knows Arnold’s weaknesses and the Sooner defense will be sure to do their part.
OTC Pick: Oklahoma 27-13
Tulane 2-0 vs 13Ole Miss 3-0
ESPN 2:20pm
At first glance one would like to think this could be a good game, but after reviewing the stats, it may not be that close. Tulane is a one-man team with BYU transfer QB Jake Retzlaff. He has thrown for 522 yards and 2 TDs while acting as the team’s leading rusher, 288 yards and 6 TDs. Meanwhile the Rebels have a QB controversy. They started the season with Austin Simmons, but Simmons threw 4 INTs in two games. After Simmons was injured Trinidad Chambliss took over and passed for 412 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs. Until Lane Kiffin figures it out, he’ll rely on RB Kewan Lacey to carry the load.
OTC pick: Ole Miss 42-31
South Carolina 2-1 vs 23Missouri 3-0
ESPN 6:30pm
South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers is out. Missouri QB Beau Pribula is in. The Tigers and Pribula will be too much for Beemer’s Gamecocks. South Carolina’s defense will try to keep them in the game, but without Sellers to keep them off the field, it’s too much to ask.
OTC pick: Missouri 31-17
Florida 1-2 vs 4Miami 3-0
ABC 6:30pm
They say timing is everything. That could mean disaster for Florida HC Billy Napier. The Gators just lost to in-state rival South Florida and LSU. Now they face a motivated Miami team and have an open week afterwards. If Miami takes the Gators to the woodshed, the open week would be an opportune time for the Florida AD to make a change. The writing is already on the wall for Napier. It’s just a question of when. The Canes down the Gators and Napier is out the door.
OTC pick: Miami 34-17
Washington 2-0 vs Washington State 2-1
CBS 6:30pm
HC Jed Fisch took over a program that wasn’t exactly scraping the bottom of the barrel. Washington was playing in the NC game two seasons ago. The Huskies have a strong running game with RB Jonah Coleman and QB Demond Williams, Coleman rushed for 288 yards, 7.4 yard per carry average and 7 TDs. Willimas has added a 6.3 yards per carry average and 132 yards while passing for 480 yards and 2 TDs. Washington State plays decent defense, but it isn’t good enough. Washington is a dangerous Big Ten team.
OTC pick: Washington 35-14
Arizona State 1-1 vs Baylor 2-1
FOX 6:30pm
ASU’s Sam Levitt doesn’t look like the same QB as last season, only averaging 175 yards passing a game and throwing 3 INTs. The Sun Devils have struggled to defend the pass as well giving up 279 yards and 3 TDs to Mississippi State. Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson has thrown for 1,070 yards and 10 TDs in three games. However, the Bears gave up 38 points to Auburn and 45 points to SMU. This one comes down to someone playing something that resembles defense.
OTC pick: Arizona State 31-28
Michigan State 3-0 vs 25USC 3-0
FOX 10:00pm
USC’s strength, their passing game, averaging 364 yards and 2 TDs a game. Michigan State’s weakness, their pass defense, giving up 273 yards and 2 TDs a game. Statistically the Spartans can’t hang with the Trojans. But QB Aiden Chiles is the would card and USC hasn’t played anybody. It’s a Big Ten game. It’ll be closer than you think.
OTC pick: USC 28-22
All stats were gathered from ESPN.com
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