We’re finally far enough into the schedule where there are some ranked matchups. I was able to pick 14 games this week and then narrow it down to 10. Potentially the 3 best games this week are LSU vs Ole Miss, Alabama vs Georgia, and Oregon vs Penn State. I’ve gone back and forth on all three of these games and truthfully, I think they could go either way. However, there are other games that are just as close. I’ve picked 2 upset games that I’m sure several of you will disagree with. But I like both underdogs. As usual, I’ll detail the top three games and highlight the other seven.
Friday, September 26th
24TCU 3-0 vs Arizona State 3-1
FOX 8:00pm
Being two of the better teams in the Big XII this one has implications for the conference. TCU’s offense has looked good against solid competition. Arizona State has struggled to look like the same team that qualified for the CFP last season and has taken their games down to the last couple of plays. This one could go the same route, but I think Sonny Dykes Horned Frogs will get it done.
OTC pick: TCU 31-28
Saturday, September 27th
21USC 4-0 vs 23Illinois 3-1
FOX 11:00am
USC’s offense may be more explosive than Indiana’s, which is bad news for Illinois HC Brett Bielema. How will the Illini respond from an absolute beat down by Indiana? The Trojans defense may not be as good as the Hoosiers, but QB Luke Altmyer and his boys have questions to answer on offense. Illinois can’t get past the hangover and goes home to Champaign with a second loss.
OTC pick: USC 34-21
22Notre Dame 1-2 vs Arkansas 2-2
ABC11:00am
Notre Dame hasn’t looked like Norte Dame, struggling to run the ball and allowing points on defense. Hogs QB Taylen Green has thrived under OC Bobby Petrino, throwing for 1,191 yards and 12 TDs while rushing for 360 yards and 2 TDs. Points haven’t been an issue for Arkansas. Hanging onto the ball has. This time HC Sam Pittman’s boys come through and upset Notre Dame.
OTC pick: Arkansas 35-31
Auburn 3-1 vs 9Texas A&M 3-0
ESPN 2:30pm
After Oklahoma’s trickery last week Hugh Freeze has crossed his fingers in hope officials stay on top of things this week. He should find comfort in the fact Auburn has a better running game, averaging 5 yards per rush with 11 TDs on the season. And Auburn’s defense only allows 1.9 yards per carry. Both teams have dynamic QBs. A&M QB Marcel Reed passed for 869 yards, 9 TDs, and rushed for 142 yards, 1 TD. Auburn QB Jackson Arnold passed for 721 yards, 5 TDs, and 181 yards, 4 TDs. This one will be close. I’m going with A&M since they are at home.
OTC pick: Texas A&M 24-21
4LSU 4-0 vs 12Ole Miss 4-0
ABC 2:30pm
After three games and a win over Clemson, I would have told you LSU had a stout defense. But with the collapse of Clemson, that comes into question. Still, this one comes down to Lane Kiffin’s offense versus Brian Kelly’s defense. LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t been having the season expected thus far with only 6 TDs and 2 INTs. While Ole Miss backup QB Trinidad Chambliss has thrown for 719 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs. LSU has a good run defense only allowing 2.5 yards per carry. Ole Miss has a strong running game, averaging 5 yards per carry. Ole Miss’s offense is more explosive. LSU’s defense allows 100 yards less per game. The winner of this game moves to the top of the SEC conference. It’s too close to pick.
OTC pick: Ole Miss 28-24
1Ohio State 3-0 vs Washington 3-0
CBS 2:30pm
People have put too much stock in Ohio State beating Texas at home. Texas isn’t Texas and Ohio State hasn’t played anybody else. This is the Buckeyes first road game of the season and Washington’s stadium can be loud. Not only that, but the Huskies also have one of the best QB – RB tandems Ohio State will face until Penn State. Demond Williams passed for 778 yards, 6TDs while rushing for 220 yards and 2TDs on the season. Right behind him is RB Jonah Coleman, who has rushed for 347 yards for 6.8 yard per carry average and 9 TDs. Coleman has also caught 8 balls for 150 yards and 1 TD. Offensively, Ohio State has two of the best WRs in the game in Jerimiah Smith and Carnell Tate. However, their production will depend on Buckeye QB Julian Sayin. I see this one as close with the Huskies getting the upset.
OTC pick: Washington 31-28
11Indiana 4-0 vs Iowa 3-1
Peacock 2:30pm
I didn’t think Indiana would be as good this year. But they are. Maybe even better. People are saying Iowa will compete with a strong defense and good special teams play. I don’t see it. Even if they did, they can’t match Indiana’s ability to score points. Fernando Mendoza versus Mark Gronowski at QB will be the big difference. This one could be another beat down and Indiana wins the battle of the ‘I’ states.
OTC pick: Indiana 49-17
15Tennessee 3-1 vs Mississippi State 4-0
SEC Network 3:15pm
Mississippi HC Jeff Libby has his team competing this season, they aren’t the same old Bulldogs. Tennessee hasn’t missed their old QB, and his replacement Joey Aguilar has been a nice surprise in Josh Heuple’s offense. Nice enough to take Georgia to the limit. Mississippi State may be improved and will get people’s attention, but not enough to take down the Volunteers.
OTC pick: Tennessee 34-31
17Alabama 2-1 vs 5Georgia 3-0
ABC 6:30pm
I’ve gone back and forth on this one. Just now I’m thinking about going with Alabama. But I’ve been burned for not sticking with my gut. Why Alabama, because of the play of QB Ty Simpson. Even in the loss to Florida State he passed for 254 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs and rushed for 17 yards while being sacked 3 times. For the season he’s passed for 892 yards, 9 TDs and 0 INTs and has only been sacked once since Florida State. The question will be if he gets a running game to support him. Georgia was lucky to get out of Tennessee with a win. So far, the Bulldogs have relied on a strong running game and run defense. They’ve rushed for 627 yards for a 4.5 yard per carry average and 10 TDs. In comparison, they’ve only passed for 784 yards and 4 TDs. This one comes down to which defense shows up. Kalen DeBoer needs the win to keep things moving in a positive direction. It’s a toss up, but I’m going with Georgia at home.
OTC pick: Georgia 24-23
6Oregon 4-0 vs 3Penn State 3-0
NBC 6:30pm
This is the biggest game of the weekend and is huge in the Big Ten standings. It should be James Franklin’s year. Penn State has been close in the past but seems to have the team to make it happen this season. I like both coordinators, OC Andy Kotelnicki and DC Jim Knowles. They also have a solid QB in Drew Allar and top tier RBs in Kaytron Allen and Nick Singlton. Between Allen and Singleton, they’ve rushed for 452 yards with 6 yard per carry average and have scored 8 TDs. Defensively the Nittany Lions have 9 sacks and are +6 in turnover ratio. Penn State is calling for a white out for the game and Happy Valley can be a tough place to play. Oregon HC Dan Lanning will have the Ducks ready and their QB and running game is just as effective. QB Dante Moore has thrown for 962 yards,11 TDs with 1 INT while rushing for 87 yards. As a team the Ducks have rushed for 1,021 yards with a 6.7 yard per carry average and 14 TDs. This should be a good one, but I’m going with Penn State at home. I like their defense and traveling across the country can have an effect.
OTC pick: Penn State 30-27
All stats were gathered from ESPN.com
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