Last weekend was one of the best slates of college football games in years. Not only were they competitive games, but there were ramifications on the ranking and conference standings. I had trouble picking out those ten games. This week I had trouble again, but this time because there wasn’t much to pick from. There are a few good games, and others that are questionable. This week my top three games are Miami vs Florida State, Mississippi State vs Texas A&M, and Iowa State vs Cincinnati. Last week I picked two upsets which didn’t happen. So much for those gut feelings. No real upsets this time. As usual, I’ll detail the top three games and highlight the other seven.
Saturday, October 4th
16Vanderbilt 5-0 vs 10Alabama 3-1
ESPN 2:30pm
Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia continues to taunt SEC foes while leading the Commodores to a 5-0 record. Last season he spearheaded the defeat over Alabama and has made it clear he plans on doing it again, going so far as to say, “If we play our game, it won’t be close.” However, HC Kalen DeBoer, much like the Crimson Tide mascot, Big Al, has a good memory. He hasn’t forgotten how too many mistakes, sloppy play, and numerous penalties plagued his team last season. This time the game is at home and this season Bama won’t let a big win over Georgia go to their heads, they’ll be ready for Pavia and the Commadores.
OTC pick: Alabama 31-28
Michigan State 3-1 vs Nebraska 3-1
FS1 3:00pm
For Husker fans Nebraska being a ten-point favorite seems unrealistic. Nebraska hasn’t been a double-digit favorite since the 2016 season. I can see how statistics would lead you to believe that spread is possible. But don’t count MSU QB Aiden Childs and his WRs out. They have a deadly passing attack when Childs is on, and if he can keep the Blackshirts off balance by scrambling it could be a long day for Nebraska. On the other side of things, MSU’s defense ranks in the bottom half of all categories in the Big Ten. Nebraska’s offense is in the upper third of the Big Ten in all categories except rushing, where they rank 11th. Meaning the Huskers should be able to move the ball and score points. There are however two wild cards in this game. One is the punting game, MSU has one of the best punters in the Big Ten when it comes to pinning people inside the ten-yard line. The other is the weather. They are calling for 40mph winds for most of the game. How does that affect both the punting and the passing game? We’ll find out what came of the bye week and if Raiola has the arm to overcome the Spartans and the windy conditions. Nebraska covers at home.
OTC pick: Nebraska 34-21
Florida 1-3 vs 9Texas 3-1
ESPN 2:30am
The loser of this game’s head coach will have some explaining to do. Texas, who was ranked preseason number one, hasn’t played like it thus far. HC Steve Sarkisian and his QB Arch Manning haven’t lived up to the hype. Their counterparts, QB DJ Lagway and HC Billy Napier have struggled meeting expectations as well, which hasn’t helped Napier’s cause. Napier’s only hope in this one is that his Gator defense can keep Manning under wraps. For Napier, it isn’t a matter of if he is fired, it’s just when. Texas, while unimpressive, does enough to get the win.
OTC pick: Texas 21-17
Boise State 3-1 vs 21Notre Dame 2-2
NBC 2:30pm
Naysayers will try to convince you Notre Dame is down this season, but their two losses are to 3Miami and 6Texas A&M, with both games coming down to the very end. HC Marcus Freeman knows his team can make the CFP with a 10-2 record, but to do so, they’ll need to make a statement. They’ve done that by scoring 56 points in each of their last two outings and they’ll try to make it a third week in a row against Boise State. Boise isn’t the Boise of last season and Norte Dame rolls.
OTC pick: Notre Dame 42-17
24Virginia 4-1 vs Louisville 4-0
ESPN 2:30pm
The question here is if Virgina still has a hangover from the Florida State win. It’s not unusual for a team to come out flat after such a big victory and they’ll need to bring whatever it was they used against FSU to get another win at Louisville. HC Tony Elliot has the Cavaliers headed in the right direction, and offensively they can hang with Louisville, it’s the Cavs defense that lets them down.
OTC pick: Louisville 28-24
14Iowa State 5-0 vs Cincinnati 3-1
ESPN2 11:00am
There is only one word to describe HC Matt Campbell’s Iowa State squad, solid. The Cyclones aren’t flashy, they don’t put up staggering numbers, and they aren’t a team anyone is talking about, but they are always in the game. On the other hand, Cincinnati may be a better team than they are getting credit for. Cincinnati HC Scott Satterfield has been somewhat on the hotseat, but if he can keep this team playing like they have been they may compete for the Big XII title. QB Brandon Sorsby has thrown for 1.049 yards, 10 TDs and 1 INT. He’s also the team’s leading rusher with 227 yards and 4 TDs. And RB Tawee Walker is right behind him with 224 yards and 3 TDs. Iowa State has played the tougher schedule, and this one will come down to Cincy being able to hold Rocco Beck’s passing game to under 200 yards. This one is close, and part of me wants to pick the Bearcats.
OTC pick: Iowa State 31-28
11Texas Tech 4-0 vs Houston 4-0
ESPN 6:00pm
So far Texas Tech has looked like a $30 million dollar team this season. That won’t change against Houston. The Cougars will compete, but Tech has too much firepower on both sides of the ball. Tech goes to 5-0 and Houston does enough to stick in the upper half of the Big XII.
OTC pick: Texas Tech 31-14
Minnesota 3-1 vs 1Ohio State 4-0
NBC Network 6:00pm
Ohio Sate is ranked number 1 in the country for a reason. From a talent standpoint they are far superior to Minnesota. There is no reason to think the Golden Gophers have a shot in this one. Statistics, schedule, scores, talent, Ohio State at home, where do you stop? Ohio State stays number 1.
OTC pick: Ohio State 34-13
3Miami 4-0 vs 18Florida State 3-1
ABC 6:30pm
Florida State jumped out of the gate with a big win over Alabama at home and moved up to number 8 in the rankings. After an overtime loss to an unranked Virgina team they came tumbling back down. Too many thought too much of the Seminoles, including the Seminoles. After defeating South Florida and Florida, Miami goes for the in-state trifecta. Florida State is led by QB Tommy Castellanos, who has passed for 848 yards, 4TDs and 3 INT’s while rushing for 217 yards and 4 TDs. However, Castellanos will see the best front seven he’s faced thus far. They’ll keep Castellanos boxed up and force him to prove he can win with his arm. Miami’s QB Carson Beck has been solid as he led the Hurricanes to wins over Notre Dame, South Florida, and Florida. Miami has faced better competition and is the better team. They hand the Noles their second loss.
OTC pick: Miami 31-17
Mississippi State 4-1 vs 3Texas A&M 4-0
SEC Network 6:30pm
The winner of this game should be allowed to pick new school colors, virtually the same, they can only be described as blah. When you start comparing these two teams offensively, they are a mirror image of each other. Aggie QB Marcel Reed 1,076 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs. Bulldogs QB Blake Shapen, 1,064 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INTs. Aggie RB Le’Veon 307 yards, 5 TDs. Bulldog RB Fluff Bothwell 405 yards, 6 TDs. Aggie WRs Mario Craver 24 receptions, 477 yards, 4 TDs and KC Concepcion 20 reception, 340 yards, 3 TDs. Bulldogs WRs Brenen Thompson 20 receptions, 324 yards, 3 TDs and Anthony Evans III 26 receptions, 323 yards, 2 TDs. Looking at offensive numbers, this one will come down to who is playing better defense, and both teams do that well. MSU has an advantage in turnover ratio while A&M looks to increase their sack total. This one is a coin toss, but I think Jeff Lebby’s team gets a close win at College Station.
OTC pick: Mississippi State 30-27
All stats were gathered from ESPN.com
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