Sometime in Matt Rhule’s first season as head coach of Nebraska the question was asked, if the Penn State job ever came open, would Rhule leave Nebraska for his alma mater. Well, the question that was asked close to two years ago is now real and Husker fans are collectively holding their breath waiting for the answer.
Hopefully they can hold their breaths for a long time, because I don’t anticipate a defining answer coming anytime soon. Some fans, however, are hoping AD Troy Dannen will act and announce he and Rhule have agreed to a contract extension. But how realistic is that? And what would that take, more money? I don’t know about anyone else, but if what Nebraska has to offer and what Matt Rhule is currently pocketing isn’t enough for him to stick around, well, he probably needs to head east.
In his Monday press conference, Rhule had this to say, “I love it here, it’s awesome. Troy Dannon, Nebraska AD, and I are in constant, constant communication about this program and where we’re headed. You know, Troy and I understand the steps that you need to take to make us Big Ten champions and national champions. This place is elite.” Rhule then added, “Players all across the country want to come here. We have the best facilities. We have elite fans. I’m really happy here and excited to get going this week on Minnesota.”
Honestly, I believe Rhule has already spoken to Kraft. He said it later, and the tell for me was this statement, “You guys think when we were five and three in my first year any schools called me then. We were five and one last year, you think anyone called me then.” The way Rhule said, “called me then,” and said it twice, suggest to me he received the call this year.
But even if he did, I don’t think Rhule will leave Nebraska, in my humble opinion he hasn’t done enough to be a serious Penn State target. That sounds harsh because I truly believe in Matt Rhule and what he is doing at Nebraska. But it doesn’t matter what I think.
What does matter is what the folks at Penn State think. And while Rhule may have a great relationship with Penn State Athletic Director Pat Kraft, and Kraft may believe Rhule is the right guy for the job, the question is, can Kraft sell Rhule to Penn State?
First off, in firing James Franklin, Penn State got rid of one of the top five winningest active coaches in college football. Franklin’s record in his eleven-half seasons at Penn State is 104-45. He’s also developed and had over fifty players drafted by the NFL while at Penn State. The sharpest criticism of Franklin is that he can’t win the big games. His critics are quick to point out his lack of success against ranked opponents. His record at Penn State is 15-28.
Now, let me be clear, this isn’t intended as a Matt Rhule bashing session, I’m a fan. I’m just calling it as I see it. First off, Matt Rhule is a rebuilder of programs. If his third year at Nebraska continues its winning ways, he will once again have taken a losing program and lead them to double digit wins in his third year. The downside of that? He’s never put in more than four years anywhere he’s been as a head coach. So, while he may garner tremendous respect as a rebuilder, there is no track record for sustaining a winning culture. That can be equally difficult, just ask Nick Saban. As of now, Rhule’s record as a college head coach is 64-57. And like Franklin, he’s also struggled with defeating teams that are ranked. His record is 2-20. So, do Rhule numbers suggest he’s better qualified than Franklin? Not yet they don’t, like his team, he has work to do.
Other names I’ve heard besides Rhule’s, Curt Cignetti, Manny Diaz, and Brian Hartline. Whoever Penn State targets, the demand for coaches will only increase. As of now there have been seven college head coaches relieved of their duties this season. They include:
Brent Pry, Virgina Tech
DeShaun Foster, UCLA
Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State
Sam Pittman, Arkansas
Trent Bray, Oregon State
Trent Dilfer, UAB
James Franklin, Penn State
And then there are the coaches who are on the hotseat and are questionable of making it through the season. I’ve listed them in what I would consider hottest to warmest.
Florida, Billy Napier
Wisconsin, Luke Fickell
Auburn, Hugh Freeze
North Carolina, Bill Belichick
Florida State, Mike Norvell
Michigan State, Jonathan Smith
LSU, Brian Kelly
Oklahoma, Brent Venables
It’s hard to imagine Kelly and Venables being in trouble, but the night James Franklin lost to Oregon, no one thought he would be fired two games later. The thought is, Penn State wanted to make change, and after losing to Northwestern, they weren’t going to give Franklin time to turn it around. The change had to happen now, before he could right the ship. How many other schools will feel the same way about their head man moving forward. Only time will tell.
GO BIG RED!!
Photos courtesy of The Falls City Journal
Stats gathered from ESPN – Serving Sports Fans. Anytime. Anywhere.
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