If Nebraska is to make a jump in Matt Rhule’s year three, then there are six meaningful games that will define the season. That’s not to say the other six games aren’t important, they are, but if this season is to be different, one thing needs to change. Nebraska must win the games they are supposed to win.
Had the college football playoffs been in existence from 1993 to 2001 Nebraska would have been sure bets at qualifying seven of eight seasons. Two of those seasons occurred while members in the Big 8 and six seasons while in the Big XII. But if you set the standard of qualifying for the CFP at 10 wins in the regular season, the Huskers would have qualified twice under Bo Pelini. Of Pelini’s seven seasons, three were in the Big XII, and four in the Big 10.
But after 2014, Nebraska hasn’t even been competitive in the Big Ten, let alone think about the payoffs. So, why am I talking about old records and what ifs? Because if you compare Nebraska’s records during the following time periods, 1993-2001, 2008-2014, and 2015-2024, you’ll see where I’m going.
Nebraska stopped winning the games they were supposed to win. In the past Husker fans never worried about games against schools like Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Michigan State, Northwestern, Illinois or Iowa. If they lost those games, it was considered a big up-set. But things have changed, now every game is in question.
The Huskers record against the following schools from 1992 to 2001:
Kansas State – 7-1
Oklahoma State – 5-0
Oklahoma – 6-0
Missouri – 8-0
Colorado – 8-1
Texas – 1-3
Texas Tech – 6-0
Texas A&M – 2-1
UCLA – 2-0
Iowa – 2-0
Michigan State – 2-0
Washington – 2-0
As you can see, only Texas was a problem. Nebraska won the games they were supposed to.
The Huskers record from 2008 to 2014:
Kansas State – 3-0
Oklahoma State – 1-0
Oklahoma – 1-2
Missouri – 2-1
Colorado – 3-0
Texas – 0-2
Texas Tech – 0-2
Texas A&M – 0-1
Iowa – 3-1
Michigan State – 2-2
Washington – 2-1
Wisconsin – 1-3
Minnesota – 2-2
Illinois – 2-0
Purdue – 2-0
Northwestern – 3-1
Penn State – 3-1
Michigan – 2-0
Ohio St – 1-1
You’ll notice there are more losses, the beginning of a trend had started, losing games they shouldn’t.
The Huskers record from 2015 to 2024:
Oklahoma – 0-2
Colorado – 1-3
Wisconsin – 1-8
Minnesota – 3-6
Ohio State – 0-7
Rutgers – 5-0
Illinois – 5-5
Northwestern – 4-5
Indiana – 2-2
Purdue – 5-5
Iowa – 1-9
Michigan State – 2-2
Penn State – 1-1
Michigan – 0-4
UCLA – 1-1
USC – 0-1
Oregon – 1-1
The bottom fell out, Nebraska found themselves on the wrong side of things, no longer beating the teams they should.
The following six matchups magnify the downfall:
Nebraska vs Iowa
1992-2001 Nebraska 2-0
2008-2014 Nebraska 3-1
2015-2024 Nebraska 1-9
Nebraska vs Colorado
1992-2001 Nebraska 8-1
2008-2014 Nebraska 3-0
20015-2024 Nebraska 1-3
Nebraska vs Oklahoma
1992-2001 Nebraska 6-0
2008-2014 Nebraska 1-2
20015-2024 Nebraska 0-2
Nebraska vs Michigan
2008-2014 Nebraska 2-0
2015-2024 Nebraska 0-4
Nebraska vs Northwestern
2008-2014 Nebraska 3-1
2015-2024 Nebraska 4-5
Nebraska vs Illinois
2008-2014 Nebraska 2-0
2015-2024 Nebraska 5-5
What needs to change for Nebraska to be serious Big Ten contenders? They must win the games they are supposed to. That means you can split the twelve games of the 2025 season in half and say there are six games Nebraska must win without question. Akron, Houston Christian, Michigan State, Maryland, Northwestern, and UCLA. These are the kind of games Nebraska always won in the past and must win again.
They need to be undefeated against the six teams listed above and win a minimum of four of the following six games if they want a legitimate shot at the CFP.
Game 1: Cincinnati
One could easily make the case that the first game against Cincinnati is an absolute must win. Most people don’t want to hear or admit that. But in this case, it’s true. The game in Kansas City will set the tone for the season and the rest of the season will be an uphill battle if they lose what will be viewed as a home game in the opener. The Huskers are favored in this game and need to show the college football world why. But Cincy is no pushover and the Blackshirts better bring their ‘A’ game going against a better than average quarterback.
Game 4: Michigan
This one is a home game and if the Huskers are 3-0 going in and Michigan loses to Oklahoma, Nebraska will be favored. Especially with Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore being suspended. Matt Rhule should have his team locked and loaded, as the last time the Wolverines visited Lincoln, they handed the Huskers a 45-7 beatdown. Fans still remember watching the maize and blue’s QB smooch his girlfriend on the sideline during the game. Hopefully things will be different for true freshman QB Bryce Underwood. The Blackshirts will need to show they can stop one of the better rushing teams they will face this season. A win here would exorcise some demons and propel the Huskers in the right direction.
Game 7: at Minnesota
Let’s face it Husker fans, PJ Fleck has owned us. This is a Friday night game on the road, and that’s been part of the problem. Fans are already worrying about a short week after a long road trip to Maryland. Minnesota has been in our heads, and that needs to stop. Hopefully the pain of Matt Rhule losing his very first game as a Husker to Fleck will motivate him to have his team ready. Because losing games to Fleck and the Gophers is infuriating. Nebraska has the luxury of possibly dropping two of the six games listed, but this isn’t one of them.
Game 9: USC
I believe this could be the second toughest game on the Husker’s schedule. Led by Lincoln Riley and loaded with talent, USC should be good. They’ll have one of the best group of receivers Nebraska will face all season, meaning this game may come down to Raiola and company outscoring the Trojans. The game is at home and if the Huskers win the games they are supposed to, they’ll go into this one undefeated. If they aren’t, the outcome will depend on how much momentum they have and their moral level going into it.
Game 11: at Penn State
This is the one game Nebraska is picked by everybody to lose, including myself. I see Penn State as a legitimate contender to with the national championship. In fact, I’m picking them to win the Big Ten. This is James Franklin’s year. I have a strong belief in both his offensive and defensive coordinators, and his team is as talented and experienced at the skill positions as any in the conference. Nebraska playing at Happy Valley also makes this game difficult. Can the Huskers win this one? Absolutely. But Nebraska is young and isn’t quite there yet. This game will allow Rhule and his players to gauge their progress, and they’ll see there is still work to be done.
Game 12: Iowa
Losing to Iowa isn’t as bothersome to me as losing to Minnesota, but it’s dang close. Maybe it’s because I’ve always considered Iowa a better program than Minnesota and I find Fleck to be gimmicky. Either way, the Iowa game is one Nebraska needs to start winning on a consistent basis. The last two years have been heartbreaking losses with Iowa winning 13-10 on walk-off field goals. This year it doesn’t get any easier. I anticipate Nebraska to be better in Raiola’s second year, but Iowa should be much improved as well with Mark Gronowski as their quarterback. Gronowski is a proven winner having led Southa Dakota State to back-to-back FCS national championships. He is the best running and passing quarterback that Iowa has had in years, making the Hawkeye offense much improved. Add that to Iowa’s solid defense and playmaking special teams and this game will be a challenge for the Huskers. Nebraska needs to win this one. I said at the start they will need to win ten games to make the CFP. I’m guessing a loss to Iowa would be three.
When looking at the Rhule year three hype, his teams have improved by four wins each time. If he does it again, that puts Nebraska in the 9 to 10 wins category. Does that mean fans will be disappointed if the Husker only get eight? I believe they will, expectations are higher than that.
It’s an interesting time to be a Husker fan.
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