Nebraska football has a passionate fanbase. Always has. So, when Nebraska got utterly embarrassed on a BIG NOON kickoff game on Saturday against 16th ranked Indiana, that passion came out. When the head man, Matt Rhule, took the podium after the game and apologized to fans saying, “he did not see it coming,” it did not do anything to quiet the social media firestorm of negativity.
That’s the reality of coaching at the University of Nebraska. It does beg the question, did the wheels just fall off the rebuild Rhule was attempting to complete?
The answer to that question is complicated, and while I can’t tell you the future, I can look at his past coaching history at his previous rebuilds to try and give you a prediction.
The prediction? Matt Rhule’s rebuild is on track, right where it typically has been for year two, and there is no reason to believe the sky is falling.
In 2013 Rhule took over Temple Owls and went 2-10. His offensive coordinator was Marcus Satterfield, and his defensive coordinator was Phil Snow. Rhule’s only wins that year were against Army and Memphis. He lost to 3 ranked teams, Notre Dame, Louisville and UCF. During his second year he went 6-6, being bowl game eligible although they would not be invited to one. He beat 21st ranked East Carolina during the season and played no other ranked opponents. In his third year, he went 10-4, winning his first 7 in a row. He would lose to two ranked teams, #9 Notre Dame and #19 Houston. He beat #21 Memphis. In his fourth and final year at Temple, he went 10-3, beating 19th ranked Navy, his only ranked matchup that year, which was also the AAC Championship game.
In 2017 Rhule took over a Baylor Bears football team fresh off a program scandal. He would go 1-11 in year one, Glenn Thomas and Jeff Nixon were co-offensive coordinators, and Phil Snow returned as his defensive coordinator. That year, Rhule lost to 3rd ranked Oklahoma, 14th ranked Oklahoma State, number 23rd ranked West Virgina and 10th ranked TCU. In year two, Rhule went 7-6. He got blown out by 13th ranked West Virginia 14-58, and also lost to 6th ranked Oklahoma, 9th ranked Texas, and 23rd ranked Iowa State. In his third and last year at Baylor he went 11-3, with his three losses coming to three top ten ranked teams: 10th ranked Oklahoma, 6th ranked Oklahoma (in the BIG12 championship), and 5th ranked Georgia (in the Sugar bowl).
If you look at that trajectory, Rhule has the Nebraska rebuild on a similar track to both Temple and Baylor. He went 5-7 in his first year at Nebraska and is currently 5-2. Its hard to imagine the Huskers don’t get that 6th win, with 7 possible in the last stretch of the season. Either 6 or 7 would put him on par with his rebuilds at Baylor and Temple. If he were to win 7 regular season games and win his bowl game, getting 8, that would put him ahead of both those rebuilds.
Some are going to argue the BIG10 is a much harder conference. His past records shouldn’t matter.
While the BIG10 might be a much tougher conference now, during Rhule’s time, especially at Baylor, – look at all the BIG12 teams that were not just ranked but ranked within the top 10. It was a different time. Rhule also has the advantage of better facilities, athletic investment, NIL, brand recognition for recruiting then he did at Baylor or Temple.
Some will also say Rhule can’t beat ranked opponents. While its true he is 3-22 all-time against ranked teams, most those losses came during the first two years of his rebuilds at Temple and Baylor. The last year at Baylor, he lost to three ranked teams, but all were in the top 10. Not easy, when he had only been at that school three years. That’s not even long enough for all his recruiting efforts to be on full display. Keep that in mind. Minus the West Virginia game, he wasn’t being blown out in those 22 top 25 losses either, most were extremely competitive.
Still, some will say all that matters is the present. The present memory is a horrific loss to 16th ranked Indiana.
I would offer patience. Rome wasn’t built overnight. While some teams are building quicker with the transfer portal, time will tell if that formula is built to last. It hasn’t worked at Florida State. It hasn’t quite panned out at Colorado.
Give it time.
Go Big Red.