Nebraska travels to Happy Valley to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions tonight and Vegas oddsmaker’s are saying Penn State wins this game. Call me crazy, tell me I don’t know diddly-squat, I’m a Husker homer, an idiot, whatever. But Nebraska wins this game.
Before I tell you why, let’s start with why they shouldn’t. Before the season started Penn State was the odds-on favorite to win the national championship, and early prognosticators counted this game as a Nebraska loss. But much has transpired since late August and because of that, this game has taken on multiple story lines. The biggest for now is a team with a 7-3 record is a 7 ½ point dog to a team with a 4-6 record. Some can’t make sense of it. But there is more than one reason for it.
This is a home game for Penn State with a potentially raucous crowd. A night game. A white out and Senior day. It all combines making Penn State a caged animal. Yes, Nebraska needs this win, fans will not be satisfied with another 7-5 season. They need to see 8-4 or 9-3. There is pressure on Rhule and his team to produce. But Penn State is scratching and clawing to get six wins and become bowl eligible. They need this win. Every goal on this team’s list is gone except for that one, and I guarantee they didn’t envision going to a third-rate bowl. So how great is their desire and how close to being on the edge of surrender are they? If there is anything I know from my years of playing and watching football, it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the heart in the dog. Yeah, I know, that isn’t exactly how that saying goes. But football is all about heart, and where is Penn State’s heart right now?
Some are saying this Penn State team will be the most talented team Matt Rhule has faced since arriving at Nebraska. That’s saying a ton when you consider Rhule has faced national champions Michigan and Ohio State the last two seasons.
Part of why they are saying that is because of Penn State’s running backs. The Nittany Lions started the season with two of the best running backs in the Big Ten in Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton. Last season between the two they rushed for 2,207 yards and 20 TDs. Those numbers compute to 202 yards and 5.3 yards per carry. The yardage production this season isn’t there, but the perception of a powerful Penn State running game is. After 10 games this season Allen has rushed for 917 yards and 12 TDs while Singlton has rushed for 419 yards and 9 TDs. Yes, they have already matched the scoring production, but the workload is no longer equal, and the game averages have dropped. Penn State averages 160 yards rushing per game with a 4.4 yard per carry average this season. As of now, they are on pace to have the worst rushing season they’ve had in the last four years.
But I do have one note of interest. Singleton isn’t seeing the field this year, but he is a much bigger threat as a receiver and is a tough matchup for linebackers. He has 19 receptions for 156 yards and 1 TD this season. Will Penn State recognize that and get him on the field against the Blackshirts?
So, anybody who knows anything about these two teams knows this game comes down to Nebraska’s ability to limit Penn State’s running game. Nebraska on average allows 161 yards rushing per game. Those numbers align, and Nebraska needs to keep it that way. They must keep the Nittany Lions under 200 yards rushing. The Blackshirts have struggled all season to stop the running game. That won’t be a small task with Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton. The Blackshirts especially struggle with mobile quarterbacks, but PSU freshman QB Ethan Grunkemeyer isn’t a runner. Although, he can do just enough that interim HC Terry Smith may put something in to keep the Blackshirts honest.
Everybody points to the Blackshirts defensive line as the problem, and I’ll concede they lack a presence to anchor the middle. But I like Riley Van Poppel, Keona Davis, and Williams Nwanewri’s improvement over the last couple of games. Throw in true freshman Kade Pietrzak and I think they’ll keep this Penn State offensive line on their heels.
But stopping the run will come down to linebackers Javin wright, Vincent Shavers Jr, Dylan Rodgers, and Dawson Merritt. They mustn’t get caught up in the line. They’ll have to be able to flow and make tackles from sideline to sideline. And the safeties DeShon Singleton and Rex Guthrie must come up in support.
Just like the Huskers, Penn State has had to fall back on their second-string QB. So, from a passing standpoint, QB Ethan Grunkemeyer has passed for 689 yards, 4 TDs, and 4 INTs. He’s been sacked 9 times. Penn State has four receivers with over 200 yards in receptions, however none have over 370 yards total.
DC John Butler’s game plan will be stopping the run and forcing Grunkemeyer to put the ball in the air. Nebraska has one of the best pass defenses in the country, the only thing that can’t happen here is the secondary getting too caught up on stopping the run, because Penn State will take deep shots in the passing game. It’s also why it’s imperative the Blackshirts keep consistent pressure on Grunkemeyer. The Huskers will win this one if they limit PSU’s running game and shut down the passing game.
The other part of the crazy point spread, Nebraska’s true freshman QB TJ Lateef is in his second start in a road game, it makes sense. Offensively, Nebraska needs to be able to run the ball effectively and pass enough to keep Penn State off balance. Emmett Johnson needs to continue his string of strong performances with 150 to 180 yards rushing. While it won’t be easy, PSU allows 148 yards a game rushing on the season. But they’ve had games where they couldn’t stop the run, against Iowa they allowed 245 yards rushing, with 130 those yards coming from the QB. Against UCLA they gave up 269 yards, QB Nico Iamaleava had 128 of those yards. What does that tell you? Nebraska QB TJ Lateef will have opportunity to run and must take advantage of that. Penn State will try to put pressure on Lateef when he drops back but look for OC Dana Holgorsen to have a scheme which utilizes Lateef’s mobility.
Nebraska must utilize their passing game in this one as they have the better receiving group. But PSU has a good pass defense, only allowing 168 yards a game. They also pressure the QB well with 22 sacks on the season. The matchup of DC Jim Knowles and OC Dana Holgorsen will be a good one.
Going back to Penn State’s talent, there is something to say about Penn State’s talent and three of their losses being Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon. Those are understandable, but their talent level was far superior compared to UCLA, Northwestern, and maybe equal to Iowa. Yet they lost those games. It comes back to what I said earlier. Do they have heart?
This one will be close, and Nebraska gets the win. This team has more heart.
GO BIG RED!!
Photo courtesy of The Falls City Journal
Stats gathered from ESPN – Serving Sports Fans. Anytime. Anywhere.
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